Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Neutral but below 21300 really bearish if the selling is decent. I do think we saw a double top bear flag past 2 weeks and are going down from here. Invalidation is clear, above 21700 I am wrong and this could go much higher because it likely means that bears are giving up. Below 21300 I expect 21000 to be hit and if a news bomb helps, much lower again. Market now failed 2 weeks at the prior upper bull trend line from 2023-05, 50% retracement for this bear trend and the daily 20ema. 3 big reasons why this will likely continue to be resistance.
current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range - will have a definitive answer next week.
key levels: 19000 - 21700
bull case: Decently bullish week but 21500 was and still is huge resistance. Bulls could not close anything above it and since they tried for 3 days staight, chances for them are not high that we will get the breakout above next week. Until bears can make lower lows below 21100, bulls are in control of this, since they have printed 3 consecutive bullish days and we are up 12% from the lows. Their only target now is to close a strong 1h bar above 21700 and then I think the last bears will cover and this goes straight to 22000.
Invalidation is below 21100.
bear case: Bears are keeping this a lower high but if market continues to poke at 21700, eventually it will break and more bears will cover. Bears have the 3 big arguments on their side: 50% retracement held, daily 20ema held and we have not made higher highs and so this could very well just be a giant bear flag ready to break down over the next days. Volume was atrocious last week, compared to the 2 prior weeks and next week we will likely seen a big move again. For now there are no positive news for the bulls and the trade war is in full swing. Even if we go above 21700, my base case is a revisit of 19000 or lower for the year.
Invalidation is above 21605.
short term: Neutral. Breakout is imminent and right now I very slightly favor the bears but market is currently more neutral than anything else. Bullish above 21700 and bearish below 21300.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
comment: Neutral but below 21300 really bearish if the selling is decent. I do think we saw a double top bear flag past 2 weeks and are going down from here. Invalidation is clear, above 21700 I am wrong and this could go much higher because it likely means that bears are giving up. Below 21300 I expect 21000 to be hit and if a news bomb helps, much lower again. Market now failed 2 weeks at the prior upper bull trend line from 2023-05, 50% retracement for this bear trend and the daily 20ema. 3 big reasons why this will likely continue to be resistance.
current market cycle: bear trend but very likely that we have seen the lows and have transitioned to a trading range - will have a definitive answer next week.
key levels: 19000 - 21700
bull case: Decently bullish week but 21500 was and still is huge resistance. Bulls could not close anything above it and since they tried for 3 days staight, chances for them are not high that we will get the breakout above next week. Until bears can make lower lows below 21100, bulls are in control of this, since they have printed 3 consecutive bullish days and we are up 12% from the lows. Their only target now is to close a strong 1h bar above 21700 and then I think the last bears will cover and this goes straight to 22000.
Invalidation is below 21100.
bear case: Bears are keeping this a lower high but if market continues to poke at 21700, eventually it will break and more bears will cover. Bears have the 3 big arguments on their side: 50% retracement held, daily 20ema held and we have not made higher highs and so this could very well just be a giant bear flag ready to break down over the next days. Volume was atrocious last week, compared to the 2 prior weeks and next week we will likely seen a big move again. For now there are no positive news for the bulls and the trade war is in full swing. Even if we go above 21700, my base case is a revisit of 19000 or lower for the year.
Invalidation is above 21605.
short term: Neutral. Breakout is imminent and right now I very slightly favor the bears but market is currently more neutral than anything else. Bullish above 21700 and bearish below 21300.
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
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