Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: On my weekly chart I think this W4 was too deep to be part of a strong bull trend. 24000 is a decent spot to go sideways rather than up but above 24100 means I’m likely wrong and bears could give up for 24500+. I would not look for shorts until we see better selling pressure again. The Globex spike from 23681 to 23963 was beyond weird. It’s a bull wedge but will likely break out sideways in Globex session. 50/50 for both sides I think.
current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely
key levels: 23600 - 24500
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 24500+ but they find no buyers around 24000. They tried so many times to print 24000 and today they finally did it again but they would need to stay above 23900 and go sideways until bears give up. Markets can poke at a price long enough until one sides gives up.
Invalidation is below 23860.
bear case: Bears need lower lows again and if they can get below 23860, many bulls could cover in fear of a bigger pullback down to 23700. As of now bears have zero arguments since we only made higher lows since Globex low but we are also barely making higher highs and if we do, they have tails above.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Completely neutral. Can go both way. US markets are overbought and once the profit taking starts, Dax won’t hold up either. Not much interest in guessing which way we go from 24000. Best to sit on hands and wait for a clear and strong signal.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Longs since the giant Globex bull spike but had to have wide stops and scale in. Not an easy day.
comment: On my weekly chart I think this W4 was too deep to be part of a strong bull trend. 24000 is a decent spot to go sideways rather than up but above 24100 means I’m likely wrong and bears could give up for 24500+. I would not look for shorts until we see better selling pressure again. The Globex spike from 23681 to 23963 was beyond weird. It’s a bull wedge but will likely break out sideways in Globex session. 50/50 for both sides I think.
current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely
key levels: 23600 - 24500
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 24500+ but they find no buyers around 24000. They tried so many times to print 24000 and today they finally did it again but they would need to stay above 23900 and go sideways until bears give up. Markets can poke at a price long enough until one sides gives up.
Invalidation is below 23860.
bear case: Bears need lower lows again and if they can get below 23860, many bulls could cover in fear of a bigger pullback down to 23700. As of now bears have zero arguments since we only made higher lows since Globex low but we are also barely making higher highs and if we do, they have tails above.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Completely neutral. Can go both way. US markets are overbought and once the profit taking starts, Dax won’t hold up either. Not much interest in guessing which way we go from 24000. Best to sit on hands and wait for a clear and strong signal.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Longs since the giant Globex bull spike but had to have wide stops and scale in. Not an easy day.
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Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.