Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. On the daily chart the market is printing alternating bull/bear bars so your guess is as good as mine when this will end. For now it’s best to scalp and fade the extremes.
dax futures
comment: Slightly bullish bias was right and market just want higher since Globex open. 19600 was rejected as it was last week but at least bulls made higher lows and higher highs again. 19500 is a tough spot for a trade as of now. If bulls can keep it above that price, that would bring much higher prices in play. If we close a 1h bar below, we likely test down to 19350 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19700
bull case: Bulls had a decent day but inside prior range and they got rejected at previous resistance. Buying above 19500 was not profitable so far and that did not change today. Best for bulls would be to make 19500 support and poke 19620 enough times until bears give up. It’s currently in a week channel upwards or a trending trading range or whatever you want to call it, it does not matter because you trade them the same.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears need a 1h bar close below 19500 or more bulls will join the buying above 19500. The rejection from 19600 was reasonable strong but in an overall maximum bullish environment, this market will have a hard time going down. If we look at the last 3 bears legs down, they get weaker and I do think many bears will give up, if bulls try to push through 19600 with force. Another way to look at this from the daily tf is that bears prevented the bulls from a daily close above 19500 for 2 weeks now. This can only continue so much until bulls give up. Both sides have reasonable arguments and this is almost always the case in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Any long before EU open with stop 19250 was reasonable and then after the move above 19500 it was tough. At that point 19600 was very likely but stop was very far away for a limited upside. The sell off from 19620 down to 19450 was much stronger than I expected.
tl;dr
dax futures - Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment. On the daily chart the market is printing alternating bull/bear bars so your guess is as good as mine when this will end. For now it’s best to scalp and fade the extremes.
dax futures
comment: Slightly bullish bias was right and market just want higher since Globex open. 19600 was rejected as it was last week but at least bulls made higher lows and higher highs again. 19500 is a tough spot for a trade as of now. If bulls can keep it above that price, that would bring much higher prices in play. If we close a 1h bar below, we likely test down to 19350 or lower.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19000 - 19700
bull case: Bulls had a decent day but inside prior range and they got rejected at previous resistance. Buying above 19500 was not profitable so far and that did not change today. Best for bulls would be to make 19500 support and poke 19620 enough times until bears give up. It’s currently in a week channel upwards or a trending trading range or whatever you want to call it, it does not matter because you trade them the same.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears need a 1h bar close below 19500 or more bulls will join the buying above 19500. The rejection from 19600 was reasonable strong but in an overall maximum bullish environment, this market will have a hard time going down. If we look at the last 3 bears legs down, they get weaker and I do think many bears will give up, if bulls try to push through 19600 with force. Another way to look at this from the daily tf is that bears prevented the bulls from a daily close above 19500 for 2 weeks now. This can only continue so much until bulls give up. Both sides have reasonable arguments and this is almost always the case in trading ranges.
Invalidation is above 19800.
short term: Neutral. Bulls need a strong move above 19600 for higher prices and bears a 1h bar close below 19500. Leaning very slightly bullish because overall market environment.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Any long before EU open with stop 19250 was reasonable and then after the move above 19500 it was tough. At that point 19600 was very likely but stop was very far away for a limited upside. The sell off from 19620 down to 19450 was much stronger than I expected.
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Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.