6/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
FIGS
Interesting <$4.5, obvious mid $3s
Another oscillator i've traded for some time. bought a small token 10 bps stake this AM to keep it on my pinkie toe in the pool watchlist (which is an upgrade from a watchlist lol bc theoretically there's *some* skin in the game).
the way i think about this one is that the valuation is probably only an obvious buy in the $2-3/shr region. why? there's a ton of dilution and without this, they're not really scaling gross profit w/ the current state of opex. so you lose $3 of GP dollars YoY (in the last Q) but also improve opex by $1. that's a tough situation.
what do i like?
if we use 15c of EPS power in '25 on 30x you're at $4.5. ofc there's a discount rate we need to apply, but realistically that's a fair bogey half way thru the year today as stands with decent results. this is why i say it's more obvious in the $3s handle.
but this is NOT a dead brand. it's in the ever growing healthcare and science industries - which are growth. it's the
LULU of healthcare clothes. someone w/ a more scaled opex structure buys this pretty obviously (already at this px). which is why i think a fair place to start nibbling is here in the low 
4S and i start to size up in the high $3s and i'm at a max size in the low $3s (if we ever actually get there - i'd doubt it - but always think ahead so you just execute when we get there, not sht yourself). max size for this type of co for me is maybe 1.5-2%, won't be a mega position as stands.
flagging, tho, on today's move bc it's getting pretty unreasonably beat up and probably more of a factor reason than anything.
have a good weekend fam. lmk if u see it differently
oh, the google trends look pretty solid (*check*)
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
V
FIGSInteresting <$4.5, obvious mid $3s
Another oscillator i've traded for some time. bought a small token 10 bps stake this AM to keep it on my pinkie toe in the pool watchlist (which is an upgrade from a watchlist lol bc theoretically there's *some* skin in the game).
the way i think about this one is that the valuation is probably only an obvious buy in the $2-3/shr region. why? there's a ton of dilution and without this, they're not really scaling gross profit w/ the current state of opex. so you lose $3 of GP dollars YoY (in the last Q) but also improve opex by $1. that's a tough situation.
what do i like?
if we use 15c of EPS power in '25 on 30x you're at $4.5. ofc there's a discount rate we need to apply, but realistically that's a fair bogey half way thru the year today as stands with decent results. this is why i say it's more obvious in the $3s handle.
but this is NOT a dead brand. it's in the ever growing healthcare and science industries - which are growth. it's the
LULU of healthcare clothes. someone w/ a more scaled opex structure buys this pretty obviously (already at this px). which is why i think a fair place to start nibbling is here in the low 4S and i start to size up in the high $3s and i'm at a max size in the low $3s (if we ever actually get there - i'd doubt it - but always think ahead so you just execute when we get there, not sht yourself). max size for this type of co for me is maybe 1.5-2%, won't be a mega position as stands.flagging, tho, on today's move bc it's getting pretty unreasonably beat up and probably more of a factor reason than anything.
have a good weekend fam. lmk if u see it differently
oh, the google trends look pretty solid (*check*)
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
V
Nota
not getting greedy. i'm out here above $5 for about 15%. would be interested in re engaging at the above logic once again. prefer LULU for a better MT less distraction hold for the discretionary part of the book.enjoy
V
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.