GBPCHF growth looks like a statistical anomaly. Usually this means that very soon the markets should return to an equilibrium state, since market anomalies are temporary and short-lived phenomenon.
Let's start with the technical picture. We will not even look at the daily chart, where the divergences in the indicators are huge and overbought oscillators approaching extreme values. Let’s look at a longer period - a weekly chart. The higher the time frame is, the better quality of the signals, because the level of the noise generated in the market is filtered and decreases.
Weekly closes above the Bollinger band - is already abnormal situation in terms of statistics, but the opening of the week above the Bollinger band is a typical anomaly. Being beyond the boundaries of Bollinger bands is a situation that can happen only with a probability of 5%. According to the Normal distribution law 95% of the price values must be inside the Bollinger bands.
But the Bollinger bands signal is not the only one in favor of the price has risen abnormally high. Oscillator RSI approached the mark of 80. And this is on the weekly chart, with the overbought zone value of 70-75.
It is also worth noting that trend indicators either draw divergences such as MACD or are in extreme zones (such as the classical trend indicator ADX). That is, the trend has already exhausted and at least needs a full correction.
From the standpoint of technical analysis, the further growth of the pair looks unlikely. Anomaly must be eliminated. And this can be done only one way - a sharp decline in the pair.
We should not forget that the franc is traditionally referred to as safe havens and in the present situation, when the world is almost on the verge of a third world war, at least trading, the fall in the value of safe haven assets looks completely illogical.
And one more thing to consider. The growth of GBPCHF is largely due to the pound, which has been growing strongly recently. Investors have so far forgotten about the Brexit. The situation can be heated at any moment and the pound will be subjected to the most severe pressure. In addition, as the reason for the pound sales can be statistics published this week: data on wages and employment on Tuesday ending with inflation data on Wednesday, as well as retail sales on Thursday.
So, from the fundamental background, the current growth also looks rather illogical.
Concluding, we have a situation where everything literally points out in favor of the fact that the growth of GBPCHF is an anomaly. And this means that soon the markets should come to their senses. The presence of such pronounced contradictions between the current movement and objective reality is an occasion for us to recommend the medium-term sales of GBPCHF.
Let's start with the technical picture. We will not even look at the daily chart, where the divergences in the indicators are huge and overbought oscillators approaching extreme values. Let’s look at a longer period - a weekly chart. The higher the time frame is, the better quality of the signals, because the level of the noise generated in the market is filtered and decreases.
Weekly closes above the Bollinger band - is already abnormal situation in terms of statistics, but the opening of the week above the Bollinger band is a typical anomaly. Being beyond the boundaries of Bollinger bands is a situation that can happen only with a probability of 5%. According to the Normal distribution law 95% of the price values must be inside the Bollinger bands.
But the Bollinger bands signal is not the only one in favor of the price has risen abnormally high. Oscillator RSI approached the mark of 80. And this is on the weekly chart, with the overbought zone value of 70-75.
It is also worth noting that trend indicators either draw divergences such as MACD or are in extreme zones (such as the classical trend indicator ADX). That is, the trend has already exhausted and at least needs a full correction.
From the standpoint of technical analysis, the further growth of the pair looks unlikely. Anomaly must be eliminated. And this can be done only one way - a sharp decline in the pair.
We should not forget that the franc is traditionally referred to as safe havens and in the present situation, when the world is almost on the verge of a third world war, at least trading, the fall in the value of safe haven assets looks completely illogical.
And one more thing to consider. The growth of GBPCHF is largely due to the pound, which has been growing strongly recently. Investors have so far forgotten about the Brexit. The situation can be heated at any moment and the pound will be subjected to the most severe pressure. In addition, as the reason for the pound sales can be statistics published this week: data on wages and employment on Tuesday ending with inflation data on Wednesday, as well as retail sales on Thursday.
So, from the fundamental background, the current growth also looks rather illogical.
Concluding, we have a situation where everything literally points out in favor of the fact that the growth of GBPCHF is an anomaly. And this means that soon the markets should come to their senses. The presence of such pronounced contradictions between the current movement and objective reality is an occasion for us to recommend the medium-term sales of GBPCHF.
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Авторские индикаторы
bit.ly/2oBvkHY
Больше информации на нашем ютьюб-канале
youtube.com/channel/UCYEOurJfasXWyYnrriGwsqQ
bit.ly/2oBvkHY
Больше информации на нашем ютьюб-канале
youtube.com/channel/UCYEOurJfasXWyYnrriGwsqQ
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.