GBPNZD Daily Analysis – Bearish Setup in Play

GBPNZD pair is setting up for a potential bearish continuation as technical patterns and macroeconomic context align. With key central bank events on the horizon this week—including the Bank of England rate decision and New Zealand's employment data—volatility is expected. Traders should be cautious yet prepared, as current price action suggests a possible breakdown in the days ahead.

🔍 Chart Structure & Key Observations
Rising Wedge Breakdowns (Bearish Patterns):

Multiple rising wedges broke to the downside, which is a bearish signal.

These breakdowns were followed by lower highs — indicating bearish momentum is strengthening.

Current Price Action:

Price is currently sitting at 2.2245, just above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2.2039).

A support test is occurring here. If it breaks, expect acceleration in downside momentum.

Bearish Flag/Pennant Setup:

Recent price action appears to be forming a bearish continuation pattern (flag or descending channel).

The blue arrow indicates a potential bearish breakout continuation after a short-term pullback (retest).

Fibonacci Retracement & Key Support Zones:

Fib levels and horizontal support coincide at multiple critical zones:

2.2039–2.2002: Minor support.

2.1818–2.1685: Strong confluence of 100% Fib level and horizontal demand zone.

2.1515–2.1509: Next major support (prior structure level).

2.0981: Projected extension target (141.4% Fib), a potential final target if the breakdown continues.

Trade Plan (as per the chart):

Entry: Bearish confirmation after a retest around 2.23–2.24 zone.

Stop: Just above the recent highs or above 2.25.

Targets:

TP1: 2.2002

TP2: 2.1810

TP3: 2.1510

Final TP: 2.0980

🧠 Fundamental Context to Watch
Considering the NZD and GBP sensitivity to central bank policy:

NZD: Watch RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report and employment data (due this week)
GBP: Bank of England rate decision and inflation letter also due this week
USD & global risk appetite could influence sentiment, as Powell and Trump tensions gro