GBPNZD (2H Chart) – Precision Breakdown

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPNZD

1. Market Structure & Current Position
Current Trend: The price is moving within a well-defined ascending channel** with higher highs and higher lows.
Recent Movement :A sharp rally to the upper trendline (~2.2750), followed by a correction.
Critical Level: The price is testing mid-channel support (~2.2450), a potential decision zone.

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2. Elliott Wave Count (Detailed Breakdown)
Based on the structure, the chart exhibits a **5-wave impulse move, possibly followed by an ABC correction

Impulse Wave Structure (Main Trend)
1️⃣ **Wave 1:Strong push from 2.1850 → 2.2350 (Initiation)
2️⃣ **Wave 2: Pullback to 2.1950(Shallow retracement)
3️⃣ **Wave 3:Strong breakout, extending past 2.2750(Largest move, extended wave)
4️⃣ **Wave 4:Current correction to **2.2450 - 2.2350
5️⃣ **Wave 5 (Projected):If wave count is correct, **final push towards 2.2800 - 2.2900

🔹 Wave 3 Validation: The strongest and longest wave, confirming an Elliott impulse pattern.
🔹 Wave 4 Confirmation: Corrections usually respect the previous **Wave 1 territory, which aligns with the channel bottom (~2.2350).

Corrective Structure (If Wave 5 Fails)
Scenario A: Classic Zig-Zag Correction (ABC)
- A: Drop from 2.2750 to 2.2450
- B: Short retracement (possibly back to 2.2600)
- C: Further decline to **2.2200 - 2.1850**

Scenario B: Running Flat Correction
- Price hovers in **2.2350 - 2.2600** range before deciding direction.

3. Key Technical Levels

Bullish Case (Wave 5 Continues)
✅ Support:
2.2350 - 2.2450** (Wave 4 support, channel midline)
2.2200** (Breakdown level)

✅ Resistance Targets:
2.2750** (Previous high, key breakout level)
2.2850 - 2.2900** (Final Wave 5 extension zone)

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4. Probable Scenarios & Probability %

✅ Scenario 1: Wave 5 Continuation (60%)
- If price holds 2.2350, expect a final bullish wave toward 2.2850 - 2.2900.
- Confirmation: Strong bullish rejection at support.

⚠️ Scenario 2: ABC Correction (Bearish Pullback) (40%)
- If price **breaks 2.2350**, we could see a larger retracement to **2.2200 - 2.1850**.
- Confirmation: A **break and close below 2.2350** with bearish momentum.



5. Conclusion & Trading Strategy
📌 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5) unless 2.2350 breaks.
📌 Trade Setup:
- Long entry: Buy between 2.2400 - 2.2450 with a tight stop below 2.2300.
- Short entry: If price **breaks below 2.2350, sell targeting 2.2200 - 2.1850.
📌 Final Thoughts: The next few hours** will confirm whether Wave 5 is valid or we enter a corrective phase. Monitor price action closely.