GBPNZD Targets 2.18 – Watch for Breakdown from Rising Channel

GBPNZD is showing signs of topping after testing key resistance near the 2.25 zone. A rising channel has broken to the downside, followed by a bearish consolidation structure on the daily timeframe. With the BoE divided on rate cuts and the RBNZ likely holding firm amid sticky inflation, the macro landscape favors a bearish correction. Technical targets align with prior swing zones at 2.2000, 2.1840, and 2.1540.

🔍 Technical Analysis
Chart Structure:

Multiple rising wedge and channel breakdowns

Recent failed attempt to retake 2.2510 (50% fib level)

Bearish flag forming beneath broken structure

Key Resistance:

2.2510–2.2570 zone capped price multiple times

Downside Targets:

2.2000 → Previous structure + fib confluence

2.1840–2.1810 → Key support zone (Feb–March lows)

2.1540 → Major trendline/test level and historical support

📉 Bias: Bearish
📐 Trigger: Breakdown below minor support (~2.2450) confirms continuation

🌍 Fundamental Context
🇬🇧 British Pound (GBP):
BoE split on rate cuts: Some members (Taylor) pushing for action, others cautious due to sticky inflation

UK Q1 GDP beat (+0.6%), but manufacturing data weak and inflation expectations rising

Overall: GBP momentum slowing amid policy indecision and trade risks

🇳🇿 New Zealand Dollar (NZD):
RBNZ holding firm: Inflation still above target; central bank cautious

NZD stronger on risk-on mood and China stabilization

Potential upside if AUD/NZD weakens further (cross correlation)

🎯 Trade Setup
Sell Bias below 2.2450–2.2480 zone

Target 1: 2.2000 – structural support

Target 2: 2.1840 – key March low

Target 3: 2.1540 – deeper swing support

Stop Zone: Above 2.2570 – invalidates the bearish flag thesis

This trade offers a strong R:R profile if the pair breaks and sustains below 2.2450.

✅ What to Wait For Before Shorting
A strong bearish daily candle closing below 2.2450 with momentum.

OR a clean rejection wick from 2.25 with follow-through selling.

Volume increase or rejection at resistance would add conviction.

🧭 Conclusion
GBPNZD is setting up for a deeper correction after a failed bullish continuation and clean technical rejection near the 2.25 area. With macro support fading for GBP and NZD sentiment firming slightly, sellers may take control into June. A daily close below 2.2450 confirms bearish intent, with multiple downside levels open for targeting.