New outbreaks, Germany pumps, the deal is over

23 Jun 2020

Perhaps the main news provider yesterday was Germany. On the one hand, an outbreak of pandemic, on the other - a signal in favor of a “hard” Brexit.

To begin with, the reproduction rate jumped sharply over the weekend. From a rate of less than 1, the reproduction rate rose to area 3. This is due to an outbreak at the slaughterhouse where tests of 1300 workers gave a positive result. If we add to this the continued deterioration of the situation in Brazil and India and an increasing number of signs of a “second wave” in the USA, we get an extremely threatening picture for the world as a whole.

Another reason to concern was provided byy White House adviser Peter Navarro, who said that the US-China trade deal is “over”. And although after this there were statements that the “over” was not quite the “over”, and Trump said that it was not the end at all, the sediment remained. And the markets began to think about a new round of trade wars between the two world largest economies.
So, we see no other options than to recommend sells in the stock markets.

But back to Germany. The German Deputy Finance Minister said that it is necessary to prepare for the worst and urged banks to be prepared for the “hard” Brexit, adding that there was a very strong risk of a difficult situation in the future.

We think this message is not for German banks, but as the last warning to the UK, which continues to show miracles of inflexibility in the EU negotiation process. And apparently, the EU is already fed up with it. This is negative news for the pound, so we will sell it today.