Fundamental Market Analysis for January 17, 2025 GBPUSD

UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth showed signs of recovery in November, although it fell short of market forecasts. It registered a marginal decline of 0.1% compared to the 0.2% expected for the month, and only slightly up from the previous -0.1% decline. UK industrial production remained stable in November, contracting by 0.4% and missing the forecast increase to 0.1% compared to the previous decline of -0.6%.

In the US, December retail sales data softened, falling to 0.4% m/m in the core reading. Analysts had anticipated a decline to 0.6% from a revised 0.8% in the previous month. The core retail sales figure, excluding auto spending, rose to 0.4% m/m from 0.2%, meeting analysts' average forecasts. The conflicting data did not prompt significant fluctuations in investor sentiment.

UK retail sales data for December is scheduled for release at the start of the London session on Friday, and is expected to rise to 0.4% from November's 0.2%. On an annualised basis, retail sales are expected to rise to 4.2% from the previous reading of 0.5%, a high median figure for an economic area that has regularly failed to meet market expectations in recent months.

Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.22000, if we consolidate above it we consider Buy positions, if we rebound we consider Sell positions.