GBPUSD – Rejected at Multi-Month Resistance Amid Weak UK Data

GBPUSD has clearly rejected the 1.3413–1.3443 resistance zone—a key area that previously acted as strong supply in September 2024. The pair has formed a bearish rejection candle and is now showing signs of downward momentum.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1.3413 – 1.3443 (major rejection zone)

TP1: 1.3176 (minor structure)

TP2: 1.3014 (key demand zone)

TP3: 1.2890 (deeper support target)

Bearish Confluences:

Price rejected from major resistance

Bearish candle formation

Previous similar reaction from the same level

Momentum indicators favor downside

📰 Fundamental Analysis:
🔻 UK Data Weakens Further:
According to the latest S&P Global Flash UK PMI (Apr 23):

Composite Output Index: 48.2 (vs 51.5 in March) – 29-month low

Services PMI: 48.9 – 27-month low

Manufacturing PMI: 44.0 – 20-month low
This shows UK private sector activity contracting, led by a steep fall in new export orders, the worst since May 2020.

🔺 Inflation Still High:
Despite falling activity, input and output prices surged, driven by National Insurance hikes and wage growth. This makes it harder for the BoE to justify a cut, despite recession signs.

📌 Conclusion:
The bearish rejection at 1.3413 resistance, combined with deteriorating UK fundamentals, suggests a strong downside setup for GBPUSD. A break below 1.3176 would confirm the bearish move, targeting 1.3014 and potentially 1.2890.