Weekly gain/loss: - 50 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.2279

As can be seen from the weekly chart, candle action is currently sandwiched between the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.2329 and weekly demand chiseled in at 1.2082-1.2214. In the event that the yearly opening level is violated this week, the next objective to reach will likely be weekly resistance drawn in at 1.2789. Conversely, a push below the above noted demand base could prompt prices to visit weekly support at 1.1904. As of now, however, medium-term direction is rather restricted.

Moving down to the daily timeframe we can see that price reacted beautifully to the base of a daily supply penciled in at 1.2510-1.2415.With this in mind, further selling could come into view this week at least until the unit strikes daily support at 1.2205, which is shadowed closely by another daily support at 1.2135.

A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 chart reveal that the candles slipped below January’s opening level at 1.2329, as well as the 1.23 handle and nearby H4 support at 1.2297 (now acting resistance). The down move was exacerbated by Friday’s US job’s report that showed average hourly earnings ticked higher at 0.4%. Also notable is that average hourly earnings advanced 2.9 percent over the year, the most since June 2009.

Our suggestions: In a similar fashion to the EUR/USD, our desk has their eye on the 1.22/1.2235 area on the H4 chart (green circle) for a bounce north today/early this week. Building a case for entry within this zone, we have the following: November’s opening level at 1.2235, the 1.22 handle, daily support at 1.2205 and also the top edge of the aforementioned weekly demand at 1.2214. Preferably, we would like to see a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle form within this region before executing a buy trade, since psychological numbers are prone to fakeouts!

Data points to consider: There are no high-impacting news events on the docket today relating to these two markets.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.22/1.2235 (reasonably sized H4 bullish close required prior to pulling the trigger, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

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