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Paun British / Dolar A.S.

GBPUSD Roadmap March 2017

Oleh Neon
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Prepare for landing..and relaunch
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And we start with budget statement today..String of events over next few weeks
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Interesting that this could be essentially a double bottom/marginal new low 6 months apart from Oct 2016
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OK, so we have NFP tomorrow, FED meeting on 15 and G20 meeting the weekend of 18. So critical period this March 10-20 for FX
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Good so far, seems selling is abating. Next week ultracritical
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Large build in net short spec position
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OK, so we getting there. It could be sell the rumour, buy the fact event once the process Article 50 has been filed and the process started. Monitor carefully
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It does seem Article 50 will be filed last week of March, tomorrow is FED, Thursday could be US proposed budget, and this weekend G20. So not much left for final climax which in any way should be limited
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Based on Big Picture ED, GBP should be able to retrace 50% of the decline from 2014 which is around 1.45 by later this year/early next year
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Dovish FED , BOE in mins
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OK, one marginal move to hawkishness via one member. Train is in motion...
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All time high net speculative short position..another piece in the puzzle
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Article 50 to be triggered on March 29 with USD potentially making a final up to (lower high or marginal new high) into 2Q17. So clearly, decision time coming
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Another solid data point supporting the basing process today. Inflation was hot, so soon I exoect a new theme to emerge called MPGA (Make Pound Great Again).
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Sell the rumour, buy the fact. Article 50 trigger week
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Pound has bottomed. One more higher low before the breakout IMHO. Medium term target range 1.40/1.45.
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GBP pushing strongly
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Snap elections MPGA, first time above 200 dma since last June
Neon

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