Overview
This trade plan reflects a comprehensive view of gold futures (GC) going into the week of July 21, 2025. The analysis draws from current macroeconomic factors, positioning data, technical structure, and live order flow behavior. Every component has been evaluated to ensure the bias is not emotional or speculative but firmly evidence based.
Macro Environment
• Real US 10Y TIPS yields remain above 2.00%, historically a bearish regime for gold.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is firming, adding pressure to metals.
• Absence of geopolitical or systemic financial stress weakens safe-haven demand.
• The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, with no near-term easing signaled.
Positioning Overview (as of July 15, 2025)
• Funds: Net long ~213,000 contracts, increasing their long exposure.
• Commercials: Net short ~250,000 contracts, adding to short exposure.
• Retail: Net long ~37,000 contracts, aligning with fund sentiment.
This positioning suggests a crowded long environment with commercial hedging at elevated prices. Historically, such divergence has preceded local reversals in gold.
> Commercials are unloading gold to the euphoric buyers
>Retail is joining long side = late to the party
Funds are late, commercials are patient. If we break higher and fail, that’s my cue to fade.
Demand & Flows
• India: Gold imports declined to a 14-month low in June.
• China: Volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange remains stable but subdued.
These indicators reflect softness in physical demand from key global buyers.
Technical Snapshot
• Price is compressing within 3330–3375.
• Point of control (POC) near 3358.
• Repeated rejections near 3375 with weakening volume.
• Negative divergence seen in cumulative volume delta (CVD).
Order Flow Observations
• Absorption noted near 3365–3380, with price stagnation despite aggressive buying.
• Lack of delta follow-through into highs.
• Spoofing behavior detected around 3372–3375, consistent with trap formation.
Trade Thesis
This is a macro-aligned short idea based on positioning, absorption at resistance, and weakening momentum into overhead supply.
Execution Framework (example scenario)
This is a non-binding conceptual entry framework for educational purposes only.
• Initial scale-in: ~3367.5 (light test)
• Main entry zone: ~3371.5 (if absorption continues)
• Optional add-on: ~3374.5 (if spoofing holds and no breakout occurs)
• Risk: Hypothetical invalidation above ~3385.5
• Targets:
• T1: ~3348 (value area)
• T2: ~3332 (prior support)
Note: Actual execution must depend on real-time confirmation and discipline. This example is not financial advice or a live signal.
Sentiment Bias
Currently biased short if price fails to break 3375 with conviction. Trade invalidates on sustained strength through absorption zones.
Probability: High
This trade plan reflects a comprehensive view of gold futures (GC) going into the week of July 21, 2025. The analysis draws from current macroeconomic factors, positioning data, technical structure, and live order flow behavior. Every component has been evaluated to ensure the bias is not emotional or speculative but firmly evidence based.
Macro Environment
• Real US 10Y TIPS yields remain above 2.00%, historically a bearish regime for gold.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) is firming, adding pressure to metals.
• Absence of geopolitical or systemic financial stress weakens safe-haven demand.
• The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish tone, with no near-term easing signaled.
Positioning Overview (as of July 15, 2025)
• Funds: Net long ~213,000 contracts, increasing their long exposure.
• Commercials: Net short ~250,000 contracts, adding to short exposure.
• Retail: Net long ~37,000 contracts, aligning with fund sentiment.
This positioning suggests a crowded long environment with commercial hedging at elevated prices. Historically, such divergence has preceded local reversals in gold.
> Commercials are unloading gold to the euphoric buyers
>Retail is joining long side = late to the party
Funds are late, commercials are patient. If we break higher and fail, that’s my cue to fade.
Demand & Flows
• India: Gold imports declined to a 14-month low in June.
• China: Volume at the Shanghai Gold Exchange remains stable but subdued.
These indicators reflect softness in physical demand from key global buyers.
Technical Snapshot
• Price is compressing within 3330–3375.
• Point of control (POC) near 3358.
• Repeated rejections near 3375 with weakening volume.
• Negative divergence seen in cumulative volume delta (CVD).
Order Flow Observations
• Absorption noted near 3365–3380, with price stagnation despite aggressive buying.
• Lack of delta follow-through into highs.
• Spoofing behavior detected around 3372–3375, consistent with trap formation.
Trade Thesis
This is a macro-aligned short idea based on positioning, absorption at resistance, and weakening momentum into overhead supply.
Execution Framework (example scenario)
This is a non-binding conceptual entry framework for educational purposes only.
• Initial scale-in: ~3367.5 (light test)
• Main entry zone: ~3371.5 (if absorption continues)
• Optional add-on: ~3374.5 (if spoofing holds and no breakout occurs)
• Risk: Hypothetical invalidation above ~3385.5
• Targets:
• T1: ~3348 (value area)
• T2: ~3332 (prior support)
Note: Actual execution must depend on real-time confirmation and discipline. This example is not financial advice or a live signal.
Sentiment Bias
Currently biased short if price fails to break 3375 with conviction. Trade invalidates on sustained strength through absorption zones.
Probability: High
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.