Gold Futures: Flight of the Phoenix

GC1!

Gold Futures Analysis:

Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark.

Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes.

On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart.

Key Levels:

• ATH: 3201.6
• HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115
• LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1
• Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018

Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation

If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0.

Example trade parameters for Scenario 1:

• Entry: 3095.1
• Stop: 3125
• Target: 3018
• Risk: 29.9 points
• Reward : 77.1 points
• Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58


Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal

In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs.

Example trade parameters for Scenario 2:

• Entry: 3115
• Stop: 3095
• Target: 3200
• Risk : 20 points
• Reward : 85 points
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25

Important Notes:

• These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.