GC is stalling beneath the 3330–3336 resistance cluster after failing to break out during NY session. Price rejected the fair value gap (3312–3318) and is now compressing just above the mean-reversion anchor (LWN). There’s no momentum reclaim from buyers, and structure suggests weakness into Friday.
We’re positioning short into expected downside continuation.
Key Levels
Reactive Resistance Cluster: 3330–3336
FVG (rejected): 3312–3318
Mean-Reversion Anchor (LWN): 3290–3300
Absorption Shelf (Target Zone): 3275
PDH/PDL (provisional): 3325 / 3280
VWAP: Flattened, near 3302
Short Setup (Active)
Entry: 3332
Stop: 3340
TP1: 3305 – Mean reversion
TP2: 3288 – LWN sweep
TP3: 3275 – Absorption shelf
Staakd Setup: 1:5.7 R:R to final target
Bias confirmed by rejection from inefficiency and absence of buyer follow-through
QM Probabilities
Bear Move 60–65% Structure favoUrs continued rejection + flush to 3275
Bull Move 35–40% Requires reclaim of 3318 + aggressive close above VWAP
Range/Flat Possible pre-close Tight range unless displaced overnight
Staakd Bias:
Structure is holding beneath resistance. Without a reclaim of 3318, we remain short-biased into Friday with eyes on 3275. Probability favours continuation unless buyers reclaim initiative fast.
Follow for post-close recap and updated levels ahead of Friday's NY open and we hope your trades worked out how you expected today.
We’re positioning short into expected downside continuation.
Key Levels
Reactive Resistance Cluster: 3330–3336
FVG (rejected): 3312–3318
Mean-Reversion Anchor (LWN): 3290–3300
Absorption Shelf (Target Zone): 3275
PDH/PDL (provisional): 3325 / 3280
VWAP: Flattened, near 3302
Short Setup (Active)
Entry: 3332
Stop: 3340
TP1: 3305 – Mean reversion
TP2: 3288 – LWN sweep
TP3: 3275 – Absorption shelf
Staakd Setup: 1:5.7 R:R to final target
Bias confirmed by rejection from inefficiency and absence of buyer follow-through
QM Probabilities
Bear Move 60–65% Structure favoUrs continued rejection + flush to 3275
Bull Move 35–40% Requires reclaim of 3318 + aggressive close above VWAP
Range/Flat Possible pre-close Tight range unless displaced overnight
Staakd Bias:
Structure is holding beneath resistance. Without a reclaim of 3318, we remain short-biased into Friday with eyes on 3275. Probability favours continuation unless buyers reclaim initiative fast.
Follow for post-close recap and updated levels ahead of Friday's NY open and we hope your trades worked out how you expected today.
Dagangan aktif
Price just wicked right into the HVRA (aka the danger zone), took out some highs, and now we wait. No entry on my end yet was watching for signs of rejection, but it ripped up fast. Still leaning bearish unless we start holding above 3,346.Here’s what I’m watching now:
3,324 (PDH) If this flips to resistance, I’m interested
3,315 (Mid-base) Clean breakdown below here and we could be on the way to 3,300
3,306 First TP if we get a decent sell off
Above 3,350 and holding? That’s my invalidation and I’ll bin the short idea. No FOMO here. Just waiting to see if this pop turns into a rug.
Penafian
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.