Busy af right now, so just getting this up. Will write more if I have time. But basically, various measurements say that bottom is in and if it isn't, it's REALLY CLOSE. That said, nothing exciting until 2nd week of April.
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NOTE: For whatever reason, next week's FOMC looking ike a rug pull whatever way you cut it, especially for silver.Nota
NOTES: A - This is the first sign of bullishness. Not the run to 1721, but the second half to 1738. In previous posts, I noted that after a run to 1671, there would be a bounce to 1720. First, GC1! hit 1673.3 for the low, so close enough. But here is the volume picture for different tickers:
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OANDA XAUUSDNota
FXCM XAUUSDNota
ICE/ICD XAUUSDSee a difference?
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In ICE's ticker, all recent volume waves are positive.Nota
Damn.... wrong bar size.Nota
Trying again, first is OANDA and FXCM:Nota
Second is ICE/ICD and GC1!:Nota
What do we know then? The selling is driven by futures. Here is the next zoom out:Nota
simplified view: Nota
So the idea here is to illustrate that the weakness is primarily in futures, so any true rally can't happen without futures participating. So here is ultra simplified GC1! (futures) 45 minute chart with ONLY DETAIL FOR BLACK WAVE ON and price waves ON. Here the lead for black wave is highlighted and the big bolded black line can be read as regression of the same wave. This is implying that black wave WANTS TO BREAK UP (dotted line is 0 h-line), but it won't do it without MOVING DOWN 1 MORE TIME due to standard volatility:Nota
B, C and D: So with ALL OF THAT IN MIND, here is the zoom in of the last chart (so 1 color up), that means that BLACK IS NOW PURPLE and RED IS NOW BLACK (dark gray, same thing):
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So if futures continue to bring its game (as implied by volume trends), WED 3/17 should get a "C" high that's higher than 1745+ as opposed to a "D" high lower than 1736 high. Why is this important, especially if we will get a A RETRACE DOWN IN EITHER SITUATIONS? That is a "D" high implies 1 MORE LOW UNDER 1677 in spot and 1673 in futures.
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F, G, H & I - I don't know why I skipped E. So a D high would bring a low BEFORE F with the floor at I, 1630 OR SO.A C high would bring a low before G with the floor at H right around 1677/1673 respectively. In theory, it can break a lower by a tad ala 1667 or something but would be IMMEDIATELY BOUGHT.
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FINALLY, REPLAY the last complete forecast at #002-6 at:
What I am saying here is, WHILE THAT FORECAST HAS NAILED THE MOVE, I NO LONGER EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT LOWER LOW.
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So early work for #003-3 looks like this: Nota
TYPO: where it says #002-6 should be #002-5.Nota
!!!! WILL FINISH THIS POST BY SAYING: SILVER IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE STARTING 4/10!!!!!!!! WILL FINISH THIS POST BY SAYING: SILVER IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE STARTING 4/10!!!!
!!!! WILL FINISH THIS POST BY SAYING: SILVER IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE STARTING 4/10!!!!
!!!! WILL FINISH THIS POST BY SAYING: SILVER IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE STARTING 4/10!!!!
!!!! WILL FINISH THIS POST BY SAYING: SILVER IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE STARTING 4/10!!!!
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That will be #003-4, with a real trace reco. Have a good week!Nota
TYPO: a real *trade" reco...Nota
I some how missed the post for explanation for point B, lost the chart (cleared it)... too busy to make another one.
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.