GLD Weekly Trade Setup — June 16, 2025

🪙 GLD Weekly Trade Setup — June 16, 2025
🎯 Instrument: GLD (SPDR Gold Shares)
📉 Strategy: Short Bias via Puts
📅 Entry Timing: Market Open
📈 Confidence Level: 65%

🧠 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot
Current Price: $311.78

5-Min Chart: Below EMAs (10/50/200); RSI ≈ 34 → short-term oversold

Daily Chart: Above 10EMA ($309.94), RSI ≈ 56 → neutral-to-bullish

Bollinger Bands: Near lower band on M5 → volatility likely

Support/Resistance:
• Support: $311.68 / $307.28
• Resistance: $312.20 / $313.00

🗞️ Market Sentiment Overview
VIX: Elevated at 20.82 → high risk premium environment

Options Flow: Heavily put-weighted near $305–$310 strikes

Max Pain: $285 → bearish options bias into expiration

News: Geopolitical tensions increase flight-to-safety temporarily, but fading momentum fuels retrace setups

🔽 Recommended Trade: GLD PUT
Parameter Value
🎯 Strike $307.00
💵 Entry Price $0.84
🎯 Profit Target $1.25–$1.70
🛑 Stop Loss $0.50
📅 Expiry June 20, 2025
📏 Size 1 contract
⚖️ Confidence 65%

🧷 Trade Plan
📥 Entry: At market open

📈 PT Zone: $1.25 to $1.70 premium, based on drop to $306–307

🛑 Stop: If premium drops to $0.50 OR GLD breaks above $313

💰 Risk Mgmt: Keep exposure <2% of total account equity

⚠️ Key Considerations
Upside Risk: Sudden bullish shift or risk-off headlines can drive reversal

Time Decay: Premium erosion risk is higher if GLD consolidates

Volatility Drag: VIX dropping could suppress put premiums quickly

🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON)
json
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{
"instrument": "GLD",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 307.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-20",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 1.25,
"stop_loss": 0.50,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.84,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-16 16:15:17 UTC-04:00"
}
💡 If GLD struggles to reclaim $312.20 at the open, the put setup becomes attractive. Breakout above $313? Exit quickly.