Model Sees 86.37 | #gold $XAU $NUGT $JNUG $AUD $CHF #elliottwave

17 Ogo 2015

Friends,

With recent news of GLD from Stan Druckenmiller positioning, I decided to pass the ETF through the Predictive/Forecasting Model and other technical screening combs:





PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

The "Model" suggests a higher-probability decline with the following targets:

1 - TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015

Whereas, the "Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015" represents a timeframe conversion threshold (typically a four-fold conversion from current to higher - e.g.: M15 to H1, H1 to H4, H4 to daily, ... Weekly to Monthly).


OCCULT GEOMETRIES:

1 - NODULAR CORE
There is a high-probability resistance imposing at/near the 110.91, corresponding to a Nodule that formed over a prior historical bullish swing. This respite carved out a "nodule", whose core (i.e.: 50%) is offering a high-probability support-to-resistance level, herein defined at (119.54 + 102.28)/2 = 50% = 110.91.

2 - GEO:
The Geo is an elaboration of the Wolfe Wave, using internal geometric correspondence and rules, such that Leg 1-2 represents a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry, Leg 2-3 a complex Elliott Wave TZZ, and Leg 4-5 a simple Elliott Wave ZZ, which is how the Geo defined itself - In contrast, I have left an outline of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Wave outline in faint blue, defined by the core 5-point plot and its 1-4 Target Line.

The Geo is an important market geometry element, as it defines a high-probability target if and once price reverses from Point-5' or Point-5'', thus defining levels of Point-4 and Point-3 respectively as their assigned high-probability targets.


ELLIOTT WAVE ("EW"):

As we consider the possibility of further decline based on the Predictive/Forecasting Model, we may consider what the mechanism of decline might utilize as a technical vehicle. Here, I assume that a bearish impulse is pending, with internal compensations ("EW's Rules of Alternations") that justifies the Geo development, as simplicity of Wave-2 comes balanced by the complexity of Wave-4. Hence, one might consider that further downside consideration is justified at this time.


OVERALL: Bearish outlook based on the foreground assertion of the Predictive/Forecasting Model. A temporizing rally might occur, as drawn by the speculative dashed arrows, but bears remain in charge.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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3 Nov 2015

Nota

03 NOV 2015 - Following is merely a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" commentaries I had initially introduced in the "Post COmment" section. I will cut/paste then in the "Update Status", so as to keep it into clean, visible, and easily retrievable chronological order:


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20 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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GLD rallied to higher-prob. ND as forecast; Nears bearish entrenchment at 110.91:



#gold XAU #euro AUD CCHF CCAD
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David Alcindor


25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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GLD stomped at forecast ND level - Coming: Preliminary construction of WW vs. Geo:



#gold XAUUSD #xau AUD CCHF
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David Alcindor


11 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:

GLD reversed from occult geometry level as forecast; Bearish targets subsist in fading probability:



David Alcindor
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David

3 Nov 2015

Nota

03 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price has retraced off of the Nodular Core value of 110.91 - Expect further downside. Bearish targets remain intact and in force:


David Alcindor

9 Feb 2016

Nota

08 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

I was waiting for added confirmation before adding any new technical note - Basically, at this point, it will be a make or break, based on the two following charts:

1 - XAU - Daily chart:

In the first chart, price continues to rally per forecast, although the interim action did take an excursive detour. Still, price is back to where it was forecast, and I expect that the 1,268.78 from last Spring's 2015 target gets hit:

2 - GLD - Weekly Chart;
In this second chart, the view is broader, and price highlights a significant resistance against the geometry's 2-4 Line, after price followed the dashed arrow forecast quite tightly. While this GLD plays out in its large timeframe, a divergence could occur in the XAU, posted above, heralding the reversal expected at these levels (i.e.: At the Qual-Target in the daily XAU and the geometry's imposition in the weekly GLD):


OVERALL:
Price is likely to have reached a significant resistance, and probably a reversal level. A contradiction to this reversal scenario would occur in GLD if price converts the 2-4 Line from resistance to support.

Best,


David Alcindor

22 Jun 2016

Nota

22 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Today, I have updated the WEEKLY chart by cleaning up and revising the wave counts and probable internal patterns:



As of today (22 JUN 2016), watch for a limited upward adverse excursion, as price draw out an expanding triangle, internal of wave-c to the presumed a-b-c correction of Wave-IV.

Predictive/Forecasting Model calls for a probable resistance at the 126.95 level, corresponding to a probable completion of the 5-point expanding pattern.

In any case, the BEARISH forecast which was defined almost a year ago (17 AUG 2015) remains intact and in force, with the series of bearish targets as follows:

- TG-Lo = 97.65 - 17 AUG 2015
- TG-Lox = 86.37 - 17 AUG 2015
- Watch Line = 71.30 - 17 AUG 2015

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

28 Jun 2016

Nota

28 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price hit overhead quantitative target, TG-1 = 126.95, defined this past 22 JUN 2016 - However, a large decline is anticipated, with abysmal targets defined nearly a year ago (17 AUG 2015), remaining unanswered.

Overall forecast remains bearish:



David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)

12 Jul 2016

Nota

12 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price capitulates at the completion of a discreet A-B-C-D-E geometry, now resting at the recently hit 126.96 target. Original forecast defined on 17 AUG 2015 remains intact and appears to now come in force:


As indicated in the most recent update, the abysmal target at 97.65, 86.37 and 71.30 should now become topic of concerns for the bull-horned market gawker.

Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster

20 Jul 2016

Nota

20 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

GLD continues to retreat from recent JUN target at 126.95, whereas last AUG 2015 targets at 97, 86 and 71 remain intact and in force:



David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)