3.20 Focus on the long and short battle of the Federal Reserve!!

19 Mac

On Wednesday (March 19), the spot gold price continued to fluctuate at a high level during the Asian and European sessions, hitting a record high of $3,045/ounce during the session, and then fell slightly to around $3,029. The market focus is highly concentrated on the upcoming Fed's March interest rate decision.

Fundamentals: 1. The struggle between risk aversion demand and policy expectations
2. Rising geopolitical risk premiums
3. Trump's tariff remarks sparked concerns about economic recession
4. Fed policy expectations dominate short-term fluctuations

Technical aspects: Long and short game in high-level fluctuations

4-hour structure chart:

Bollinger Band pattern: upper track 3044.86, middle track 3031.24, lower track 3017.63, the current quote 3030.49 is close to the middle track, indicating a short-term balance of long and short forces. If the price stands firm on the middle track, it is expected to test the upper track (3044) again; if it falls below the middle track, it may seek support from the lower track (3017)

Moving average support: The 100-day moving average (2928.75) and the 200-day moving average (2903.27) form a long-term support band, and the price difference with the current quotation exceeds US$100, further verifying that gold is in a strong cycle.

Resistance level: 3050 3080 3100

Support level: 3018 3000 2980

19 Mac

Dagangan aktif

Trend strength: The moving average systems of the 60-minute and 4-hour charts both show a "steepening" feature, indicating that the upward momentum has not been exhausted;

Stress test: The 60-minute upper rail 3044 and the 4-hour upper rail 3051 constitute a resonance resistance zone, which will open up space to sprint to $3,100 after breaking through;

Callback risk: If the US dollar rebounds due to the Fed's hawkish signal, the gold price may fall back to the 4-hour middle rail 2997, but this position forms a double support with the 60-minute lower rail 3017, limiting the downward space.

19 Mac

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Today's key data:

1: US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) to March 19

2: UK central bank interest rate decision to March 20

3: US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15

19 Mac

Nota

Brothers: Keeping the interest rate unchanged, the gold price should fluctuate narrowly around $3,000-3,045. Let us wait for guidance from subsequent data.