Gold: Is the bulls poised for a second wave of gains?

3 hari lalu

The US government shutdown has lasted over 40 days, setting a new record for the longest government shutdown in history. The previous forced shutdown of 35 days was also a record broken by current President Trump.

Last Friday, the non-farm payroll data, which was supposed to be released, was also delayed. With no data available, the US entered a data "vacuum," and no one knows when the government will reopen.

During the previous three US government shutdowns, the US dollar index initially fell before rising. This time, however, the dollar index rebounded instead of falling, moving in tandem with gold. Gold prices have been oscillating below $4050, and today's opening saw an accelerated rise to challenge $4050.

I believe short-term volatility will continue, but downside potential is being compressed. Even if it cannot break the historical high of $4400 in the short term, there is a possibility of another upward surge during repeated fluctuations.

The 4-hour candlestick chart shows that the lows are constantly rising, challenging the $4050 resistance level. After a pullback at the end of last Friday's trading session, the overall trend is bullish. Today, the key focus is on a breakout above $4050. A breakout above this level followed by a pullback will likely lead to further upward movement.

Gold prices found support in the $4030-20 range after the pullback. A pullback to confirm the high from last Friday's rebound would be a good entry point. A break above $4050-60 would allow for further upward movement. If the Asian session rally continues into the European session, there will be another opportunity to go long before the US session.

3 hari lalu

Dagangan aktif

Go long today, but don't be too aggressive. Wait until it falls below 4030 before considering going long, otherwise there won't be much room for growth. Also, another way to judge whether it's a consolidation phase is the European session. Whether the upward momentum continues in the European session is crucial. If it fails to break through and remains below the morning high of 4053, then the evening will likely be consolidating. Remember, if the intraday high isn't broken, don't go long recklessly in the evening.