Am with the bulls on this one ahead of the cpi data

11 Ogo

As we head into a New week, why am a bull on this one is that investors are eyeing the
Rate-Cut Fever: Traders are pricing in a September Fed cut (~90% probability), which weakens the dollar and boosts gold demand Tariff Turbulence & Safe-Haven Flow: U.S. tariff policies—especially recent drama and subsequent exemptions—have kept gold in investors’ crosshairs
Strong Fundamentals: Central banks are still shopping for gold, and ETF inflows are climbing despite elevated prices.
My Tactical Summary is that
Buy dip at Retest Zone (~$3,340) or deeper near $3,300–$3,280. Stop below $3,280; Target $3,415 first, then $3,500 if macro holds
Cautious Watch If CPI or risk-off sentiment hits, expect rejection near $3,380–$3,400. Only go long with a clean move above $3,400 confirmed by macro
My theory is that if the If CPI comes in cooler than expected (lower inflation):
Fed rate-cut expectations will jump from “likely” to “almost certain.”
USD will weaken, yields will drop → Gold likely will have a bull run on that
Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) could trigger a clean bounce toward $3,400+ almost immediately after the release. The mitigation of the $3,500 handle will have to take effect if the market smells an extended rate-cut cycle.
But on the dovish side now is that
If CPI comes in hotter than expected (higher inflation)
Fed cut odds fade, USD strengthens, yields rise → Gold could drop hard.
The Extreme Discount Zone (~$3,300–$3,280) will become the make-or-break demand area.
If that fails, we could see a quick trip to $3,245 or lower.
My final take
If CPI is bullish for gold → buy retests of $3,340 or $3,400 breakout.
If CPI bearish → short failed $3,340 retest or breakdown of $3,300.

12 Ogo

Nota

First Wave: Expect a knee-jerk spike toward $3,380–$3,400.
Wait for the Pullback: If the price dips back to Retest Zone 1 (~$3,340) and holds, buy on the bounce.
Target 1: $3,400–$3,415 liquidity pocket.
Target 2: Full push to $3,500 if momentum stays strong and macro tailwinds continue.
Stop Loss: Below $3,320 to avoid fake-out traps.
If CPI is much lower than expected, skip the pullback hunt and go straight for breakout buying above $3,400.

12 Ogo

Nota

Resumption of bullish tone: With rate-cut expectations intact and geopolitics still tense, gold looks primed for a rally back to $3,400+, eyeing $3,500+ in the coming days. Headline inflation’s softness reassures that the Fed sees downward pressure.
Core CPI’s firmness adds complexity—but doesn’t derail the easing narrative.
September cuts are baked in: market odds surged to ~96% chance
Enter long: On a clean 4H close above $3,340–$3,350, confirming rejection of the dip.

Initial Target: $3,400, followed by the strong resistance zone near $3,500.

Stop: Sub-$3,320 to protect against another fakeout.

If price pokes below $3,334 and holds, that could be a second-chance zone — but fading that would be pushing against the macro wind.

3 hari lalu

Dagangan aktif

1st Initial Target: $3,400, done. Patient is key in this game, I am still bullish till I mitigate the 3500 zone, please start trailing the profit