HSI is about to have a 2000 points trend continuation ?

3 Feb

1. Trade war priced-in since November when Trump wins. it's still within sideways range bound and did not drop to September low. 2. China’s AI catch up play: US AI related stocks has been risen ALOT last 2 yrs. Funds likely to take some profit as valuation not attractive and US LLMs functionality not a lot better than those Chinese LLMs, also Chinese LLM has cost advantage for commercial- hence global money will bet some in China AI (Imo, It is beyond the foreigner's expectation for AI in China to catch up that quick. ） 3. US is rising uncertainty short term (USD liquidity + Debt and deficit issue + vulnerability of US treasuries + DOGE job cuts + trade war), with US relatively high valuation, the global money demands more return (China is the most hated market last few years and it is market good for short term speculative) which is attractive for global funds to allocate more to China and weight less on US, as I think US is going for a pull back in short term. 4. Retracement from top seems to be able to hold at this current level of 19000-20000 and did not continue to fall further, now testing weekly MA 200 level, I think it is likely to go across in near term. (or test back 19300 level and back up again) I think it is nice to open position for short term speculation as the risk reward is attractive. Need to watch out how the weekly candle plays out though. Long term China fundamental debt deflation issue still remains and china chose strong RMB over reflating the economy.

18 Feb

Nota

this time, HSI bull trend will last longer than previous few years IMO, hence we should let profit run:
1. long term debt deflation has been a known fact and priced in for last 4 years, whilst tech revolution theme has just started for 1-2 months.
2. Xi's met with private sector ytd, which is showing a sign of rapprochement. Previously his intention was 'state enterprises advance, while the private sector retreats'. Now he realize the country needs private sector especially tech company.
3. US has been prohibiting chips for past few years. China demonstrated that even US suppressed, their technology still able to catch up, this gives market more confidence.
unlikely it will drop back to below 20000.

5 Mac

Nota

US is experiencing higher timeframe pullback now as i mentioned last month!

1 Apr

Nota

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