HYPE — How to Combine Fibonacci, VWAP and Market Structure

After an explosive +392% rally in just 70 days — from $9.298 to a peak of $45.8 — HYPE has entered a consolidation range as expected. Structurally, this appears to be a 5-wave impulse now transitioning into a corrective ABC pattern. Based on current structure, we may now be forming wave B.

What’s Unfolding Now?

A potential Head & Shoulders pattern is developing, with price currently working on the right shoulder. The $40 mark stands out as a key resistance — both technically and psychologically:

• 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the down move sits at $40.108
  
• Structural resistance from prior highs
  
• Ideal area for a short rejection
  

🎯 Short Setup:

• Entry: Laddered short between 0.618 ($40.108) and 0.786 ($42.611)
  
• Stop-Loss: Above $44 (after rejection adjust to entry)
  
• Target: $28–$27 zone
  
• R:R potential: 1:3 up to 1:9 depending on entry quality
  

📍 Why $28–$27 Is Key Support:

• 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of entire +392% rally sits at $27.549
  
• Anchored VWAP from the rally origin ($9.298) aligns around this zone
  
• Weekly & Monthly S/R convergence
  
• VAH (Value Area High)
  
• 0.618 Fibonacci Speed Fan also aligns as dynamic support
  
• Fair Value Gap (FVG) lies in this region
  
• Weekly 21 EMA at $28.05/Weekly 21 SMA at $24.10 — both key moving averages providing layered support and trend structure
  

📐 Bonus Confluence Insight:

If this is indeed wave B, then projecting a 0.786/1.0 Trend-Based Fib Extension from wave A aligns well with the 0.5 fib retracement at $27.5.

📚 Educational Insight:

Stacking confluences such as Fibonacci retracements, anchored VWAPs, volume zones, EMA/SMA levels, and harmonic structures helps identify high-probability zones where smart money is likely to act. These levels become even more powerful when they align across multiple tools and timeframes. Always confirm with price action.

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