Intel poised for a breakout

6 Jun

Intel INTC is quite possibly poised for a breakout, as we look at a triangle formation here on the 3W chart, roughly ten months in the making, beside consolidating momentum. Longer term timeframes are good for determining the main trend in a stock's price.

On the short term 4H timeframe, better suited for trade entry and exit signals, an inverted head & shoulders pattern has formed both in price and momentum.


Fundamentally, Intel shares are arguably cheap, with a discount to Net Asset Value that began in 3Q 2024. A stock trading at a discount to net asset value is selling for less than the per‐share value of its assets minus liabilities.

24 Jun

Nota

The breakout looks legit on the 3W chart

19 Ogo

Dagangan aktif

Intel has received unbelievable news in the past week or two. At first it seemed they were being punished by the administration, as fresh chip sanctions were omitted for TSMC, which is ostensibly the biggest chip manufacturer globally. That news coincided with criticism of Intel's CEO by the president of the United States, which together dragged the stock down.

Since then, news emerged that the US government may take upwards of a 10% stake in Intel; who could have foreseen that lol! Soon after Soft Bank decided to throw its hat in the ring with a $2B investment.

All-in-all the stock continues to be range bound, but with the recent news is close to the upper end, which is that $26 area I highlighted previously.



Unfortunately I rolled my $26 covered calls after the bad news about the tariffs, with an strike of $22 (my average price), so there's a chance I may miss out on this rally. If you look at some of my other recent posts though, there's still a chance of a broad market selloff.

*

*

*

Some folks would consider INTC overvalued since the possibility of a US government stake is still rather speculative.

Should that stake materialize it could be viewed as an incarnation of my thesis on the stock, which is the fact that its a domestic company looking to build chips in the states, a big desire of the current administration, means it's been undervalued. While it'd be a bit strange to have the company partially owned by the federal government, that should put a floor under its stock price, at least for a while.

My (selfish) guess on price from here? If the broader market sells off, that could drive the price right back to the lower end of the range again. News of the Uncle Sam actually taking a stake though -- I think could send it north of $26 at this point, even if the market writ large is in the tank.

6 jam lalu

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

While it only touched $26 on an intraday basis I'm chalking this up as a win, especially because I personally made money on the trade. Happy trading folks!