Published by Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 1, 2025
Thesis: Short-term weakness is emerging on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (
IWM) as momentum fades following a steep vertical rally. A breakdown below the mid-band could trigger further downside into key support zones.
🔍 Technical Breakdown
Chart: 15-minute timeframe
Trend: Bearish short-term momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: $195.64 (session high)
Mid-range Support: $194.45 (VWAP/mid-band)
Critical Demand Zone: $192.87
Indicators:
Price has pierced the upper Bollinger band and is now retreating toward the midline.
Strong rejection candle formed at the recent high, signaling buyer exhaustion.
Visual downward projection aligns with the VWAP deviation bands, reinforcing mean reversion expectations.
🧠 Probability Outlook
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability
Trigger: Break and close below $194.45
Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability
Trigger: Price holds above VWAP zone
Bullish Reversal: 10% probability
Trigger: Break back above $195.64 with volume
🔧 Strategy
Short bias favored with target at $192.87
Stop-loss: Above $195.80
Watch for increased volatility near macro catalysts (e.g., Fed rate decisions)
🧭 Stay disciplined. We trade probabilities, not certainties.
💬 Drop your thoughts and setups below 👇
#IWM #Russell2000 #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BollingerBands #MeanReversion #StockMarket #ETF #WavervanirDSS #MarketOutlook #QuantitativeTrading
Thesis: Short-term weakness is emerging on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (
IWM) as momentum fades following a steep vertical rally. A breakdown below the mid-band could trigger further downside into key support zones.🔍 Technical Breakdown
Chart: 15-minute timeframe
Trend: Bearish short-term momentum
Key Levels:
Resistance: $195.64 (session high)
Mid-range Support: $194.45 (VWAP/mid-band)
Critical Demand Zone: $192.87
Indicators:
Price has pierced the upper Bollinger band and is now retreating toward the midline.
Strong rejection candle formed at the recent high, signaling buyer exhaustion.
Visual downward projection aligns with the VWAP deviation bands, reinforcing mean reversion expectations.
🧠 Probability Outlook
Bearish Continuation: 65% probability
Trigger: Break and close below $194.45
Sideways Consolidation: 25% probability
Trigger: Price holds above VWAP zone
Bullish Reversal: 10% probability
Trigger: Break back above $195.64 with volume
🔧 Strategy
Short bias favored with target at $192.87
Stop-loss: Above $195.80
Watch for increased volatility near macro catalysts (e.g., Fed rate decisions)
🧭 Stay disciplined. We trade probabilities, not certainties.
💬 Drop your thoughts and setups below 👇
#IWM #Russell2000 #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BollingerBands #MeanReversion #StockMarket #ETF #WavervanirDSS #MarketOutlook #QuantitativeTrading
Nota
This is a bit riskier than my previous trades. Trade with caution. Nota
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.