Is History Repeating on IWM?

1. Historical Pattern Repeating?

✅ Symmetry Between 2021-2022 & 2024-2025
• Both price structures show an initial sharp rally, followed by a head-and-shoulders-type decline, then an extended bearish wave lower.
• In 2022, IWM broke its long-term trendline (yellow) and crashed into a lower range.
• Now in 2025, IWM is showing the same breakdown pattern below that same yellow trendline, suggesting another leg down.

✅ Fractal Pattern Match
• The zigzag pattern (white lines) from 2021-2022 matches closely to the current market structure.
• If this fractal pattern repeats, IWM could be heading for another prolonged decline toward $180 or lower.

✅ Major Resistance Held Strong
• The yellow downward-sloping trendline acted as resistance in both 2021 & now in 2025.
• This rejection in 2025 adds to the bearish probability of history repeating itself.

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2. Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Bias

📉 Stochastic RSI (Momentum Indicator)
• Currently oversold (~23.29), but no bullish reversal yet.
• This suggests that momentum is still to the downside with no sign of a bounce.

📉 MACD (Trend & Momentum)
• Bearish crossover confirmed, with the MACD histogram turning increasingly negative.
• This reinforces that downward momentum is strong, aligning with the 2021 crash pattern.

📉 Moving Averages Acting as Resistance
• The 200-day EMA (purple line) was broken & rejected, which is a strong bearish signal.
• This rejection mirrors the 2021 rejection, which led to a deep sell-off.

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3. Price Targets & Potential Moves

If IWM follows the 2021 fractal pattern, here’s where it could go:

🔴 Bearish Targets (If Breakdown Continues)
• First Target: $190.00 → Minor support zone.
• Second Target: $180.00 → Key historical support.
• Final Target: $160.00 → Full fractal breakdown completion.

🟢 Bullish Reversal (Invalidation Point)
• If IWM reclaims $204-$210, it could invalidate the pattern and start a recovery.
• Breaking above the yellow trendline (~$210.85) would signal a bullish shift.

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4. How to Trade This Setup?

🔻 Bearish Trade Ideas (If IWM Stays Below $198.75 & Breaks $198.10)
1. 0DTE Put Option (High Risk, High Reward)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Target: $190.00
• Stop-Loss: If IWM reclaims $200.
2. Bear Put Spread (Safer Play)
• Buy IWM $195 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Sell IWM $185 Put (Exp. 3/14)
• Max Profit if IWM closes below $185.
3. Sell a Bear Call Spread (Credit Strategy)
• Sell IWM $205 Call
• Buy IWM $210 Call
• Profit if IWM stays below $205.

🟢 Bullish Trade (If IWM Reclaims $204 & Breaks Above $210.85)
• Buy IWM $210 Call (Exp. 3/14) → Target $217+

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5. Conclusion – Is IWM Repeating the 2021 Crash?

✅ Yes, the fractal pattern suggests history is repeating.
✅ Downtrend confirmed, rejection at key resistance, and bearish indicators align.
✅ Watch for a break below $198.10 for further downside to $180-$160.