How to identify a successful Breakout?

18 Jul 2021

Underlying logic:

1. The price gets rejected from a level repeatedly and forms a major resistance.
2. There is an initial test of supply which absorbs some pending orders
3. The price finds a bottom and some sort of accumulation happens.
4. After the accumulation, the price tries to move back up to retest the resistance level.
5. A bull trap is confirmed when the price pierces through the resistance level but there is no follow-up move.
6. But after every test of the supply, it becomes weaker and weaker due to absorption of pending orders(already discussed in older posts)
7. The price finds a bottom again and then another phase of accumulation starts
8. Finally, the price moves up and tries to breakout above the resistance. This time the price manages to break out since the residual supply gets absorbed and it gives a retest.
9. If the breakout is successful, it will be followed by a bullish move and the volume will expand.
10. The retailers buy after the breakout while the institutions buy during the accumulation phase.

Exhibit 1: Clear breakout and clear retest


Exhibit 2: Clear breakout with NO retest of a horizontal level


Exhibit 3: Breakout with consolidation at the resistance level
Sometimes, the price may start consolidating at the resistance level. This is a positive sign because the price is absorbing all the residual supply and is trying to find the equilibrium.


There can be many more different variations, but the underlying concepts remain the same. You can read and revise this post until you master the concepts.
I hope you find this post useful. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a consolidated PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it.

Disclaimer: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.

Happy learning. Cheers!
johntradingwick