JPM -- short

1 Sep 2023

I was looking for some short exposure for next week, and landed on JPM on my target.

My rationale:

1. I expect that some of the pre-holiday cheer will turn to hangover by next week.
   
2. JPM is at the upper edge of its declining 1-month trading channel
   
3. There's a highly predictive broken triangle pattern
   
4. DXY is zooming today, without anyone paying much attention, and could easily take out the 5/31 high of 104.70. This would likely come as a reaction to bad news from China, and could translate into increased domestic recession fears in the US.
   
5. I already have a lot of financial long exposure and can use a bit of short-term protection.
   

My target is 145, and my SL is at 149. As these targets are very close to the current price, I will express this with a short term vertical put spread. But, as always, this is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research.

I welcome your opinions in the comments.

5 Sep 2023

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Technically JPM bounced at 145.01, 1¢ above my target. In practice, this was close enough for a partial profit. I closed 3/4 of my vertical spread position for a 150% return and will let the remainder ride.

6 Sep 2023

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai

Closed the last quarter position in the spread for a 270% return.