2/11/25 - $lyft - valuation matters. px go up.

11 Feb

2/11/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: LYFT
valuation matters. px go up.

- uber is like Big Balls/ Harry Bolz
- and lyft is like peanut the squirrel
- they both got nut
- but okay, seriously, lyft is defn a crappy #2 to uber. we all know this. i wrote about "why i don't buy #2" in my DASH post, even tho i still think #s are good (Dash reports tn hence the comment)
- but here's the deal with lyft... if you think about UBER as a demand aggregator in the world of AV, and while they have a BIG headstart... there's still 5 y of runway to accumulate customers, scale, strategy etc. and at 5BN enterprise value, that's a micro vs. Uber at >$150 bn.
- and with mobility trends at UBER strong in 4Q... good outlook for 2025 (and remember USD strength was the sticking pt on UBER print... well it wasn't for some of us - but for the ST reaction... it is probabaly *less* of a sticking pt for LYFT which is more US centric).
- with expanding mgns, similar-ish growth (industry floats similar boats)... but nearly 10% fcf yields... any good print here sends LYFT up 20%. a miss maybe -5-10%.

so the R/R here is skewed positive. keeping it small. i play all my edges, and size accordingly. i'd view this one as a slight edge on today's give-back which is more market/ broader risk related not fundamental driven.

let's see.

V

12 Feb

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will probs close this small size, though i think fundamentally it's too "cheap" - but that's not why i keep things on the book to disagree w/ mr mkt. clearly uber is the dominant platform here (which ironically is also down on this print - but perhaps it's just giving back more on that tremendous move it's had). think the logic on "why not #2s" stands and hence the small size... and honestly... if good valuation, decent print but mediocre guide is -ve for #2s and lower... no use playing these ones in the remaining EPS prints to come, until we get some mkt correction, the #2s and beyond go to valuation extremes... and maybe then, even after the bid has already shown for #1 can we rotate lower in the quality stack. best guess? 2H event for these types of stories all else equal.

b well

V