Technical Analysis of $MELI (MercadoLibre) - For Long Term

After a thorough analysis of MercadoLibre (MELI) charts on 1M, 1W, and 1D timeframes, here’s a summary covering market context, key levels, trading opportunities, and price phases. Perfect for traders or investors looking for actionable insights.

Market Context

1M/1W: Strong bullish trend, with Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). The surge to the ATH ($2374.54) after the February 2025 earnings (+13%) and a post-HL move (+15%) show robust momentum. No clear signs of weakness (increasing volume, no RSI divergences).

1D: Likely in a temporary correction or consolidation within the $1700-$2140 range since August 2024. One Lower High ($2202, $2121) without Lower Lows (LL) suggests no confirmed bearish reversal. Bullish MACD (crossing above signal line) and rising volume (except the last 4 days) hint at a potential bounce.

Key Levels

Supports:

$1700-$1723.90: Equal Low (EqL), Point of Control (POC), Fibonacci 61.8%.

$1646-$1660: Pre-ATH low, historical level (2021).

$1830-$1870: High Volume Node (HVN).

Resistances:

$2100-$2140: Equal High (EqH), Order Block ($2000-$2100), HVN ($2060-$2100).

$2374.54: ATH.

Liquidity: Short stops above $2190, long stops below $1700. A false breakout at $2100 suggests potential manipulation.

Trading Opportunities

Bullish:

Bounce from $1700-$1723.90 targeting $2000-$2100, supported by POC, Fibonacci, bullish MACD, and Fair Value Gap ($1960-$2045) as a magnet.

Breakout above $2140 with high volume could target the ATH ($2374.54) or $2400-$2500 (analyst price targets).

Bearish: No clear reversal signals (no Change of Character, no bearish divergences). A break below $1700 with high volume might target $1646-$1660.

Range: Trade the $1700-$2140 range (buy at support, sell at resistance) until a clear breakout occurs.

Strength and Price Phase

1M/1W: In a bullish trend phase (Wyckoff). The -20% pullback post-ATH (linked to Galperin’s $300M share sale) is a correction within the trend. Pre-ATH consolidation supports this phase.

1D: In a lateralization phase (Wyckoff), with the $1700-$2140 range indicating accumulation or distribution, pending confirmation. The false breakout at $2100 suggests manipulation to sweep stops.

Additional Notes

Fundamentals: $5.8B investment in Brazil and $2.6B in Argentina (2025) bolster growth. Analysts (Cantor, Benchmark) target $2400-$2500, but Trump’s trade tariffs could add volatility.

Technical: Monitor volume on breakouts ($2140) or breakdowns ($1700), MACD (1D), and RSI (overbought at ATH, neutral now). Volume Profile (POC $1700, HVN $2000) and Order Blocks ($2000-$2100) are critical.



Suggestions: Consider lower timeframes (4H) for precise entries. Indicators like Stochastic RSI or Bollinger Bands could complement the analysis.

Conclusion: MELI displays a robust bullish trend on higher timeframes, with a manageable consolidation on 1D. Supports ($1700-$1723.90) are strong, and signals (MACD, FVG, volume) point to a bounce or bullish breakout. Great for swing trading the range or going long on a $2140 break. Watch out for macro volatility!

What do you think? Anyone trading MELI or have more insights to share?

**Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly.**