The assumptions are:
1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely.
2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured.
3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low.
4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top.
5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe.
6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets.
I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely.
2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured.
3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low.
4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top.
5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe.
6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets.
I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.