A look at the ES1!

What's up traders,

Havent posted in a while.
Heres my take and outlook for next week, using the MES1! (SP500)

Current Outlook

Technical Look:

• Momentum Bearish -323.25 (looks weak)
  
• MACD Bearish, possibly inflecting
  
• RSI 36.72, off lows and crossing MA (oversold)
  
• 200D SMA at 5775.75 (Below the 50 Day)
  
• 50D SMA at 5967.43 (Above the 200 Day) Trending towards a Death Cross
  

Price Action

• Bullish Engulfing Candle on the March 14 bounce.
  
• Price successfully crossed the 5600 Psychological Level
  
• We bounced at ~5500
  
• Experiencing resistance in the 5640-5620 Range (expected)
  

Sentiment

• Canada showed promise as heading towards a (take your best guess at the details) resolution to the tariff fight with the united states.
  
• Tariffs remain a major drag on the stock market pricing.
  
• Government shut down at time of this post, is apparently narrowly avoided.
  
• Gold Set a new high.
  

Outlook for Next Week

Economic Reports

• Monday - Retail Sales 830AM
  
• Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts 830AM
  
• Wednesday - Fed Int Rate Decision 2PM, JPOW Speech 230PM
  
• Thursday - Existing home sales 10AM
  

Notable Earnings Reports

• Micron
  
• Nike
  
• Fed Ex
  
• General Mills
  
• Carinval Cruise
  
• NIO
  
• Tencent
  

I viewed the Firday bounce as a sort of 'relief rally'. My belief is that we could go higher on the back of it. The market has majorly 'oversold' by the numbers - and the probability of a bounce became increasingly likely. Upside resistance to remain mercurial on the rapidly changing sentiment narrative.

A possible outcome: retest the underside of the 200DMA.

I do not expect a notable price recovery towards ATH's until the tariff effects are known, which means: I expect higher than normal volatility for several months

Earnings projections (in the coming earnings season) will shed the required light on reality.

I have been adding long term holds - such as:

• GDX
  
• DAX
  
• META
  
• GOOG
  
• AMZN
  
• BABA
  
• UNH
  
• C
  
• CRWD
  
• IBIT
  
• NVO
  
• CMG
  
• INDA
  
• AVGO
  

I remain ~90% cash at ~3.7% yield.

Resistance possibly at:

• 5672 August 2024 Resistance, September 2024 Support
  
• 5724 July 2024 Resistance and later Support
  
• 5775 (200 Day SMA)