VWAP/OR Setups & Macro Crosscurrents (Sept 24, 2025)

The S&P 500 (MES1!) is currently in a volatile state as Wednesday’s trading session commences.

Macro headwinds have dampened expectations for further rate cuts, leading to weakness in Big Tech yesterday. On the other hand, sector tailwinds have emerged, with Micron reporting strong Q4 earnings and Boeing and Palantir forming an AI partnership. These developments have generated after-hours optimism, supporting the performance of semiconductors and AI-related stocks.

This volatile environment presents opportunities for scalpers. The volatility around VWAP/OR levels, coupled with liquidity-driven inflections, creates fertile ground for scalping.

Chart Context (MES1! – 15m & 5m overlays):

VWAP serves as a key pivot point, with multiple reclaims and rejections occurring overnight. The ORH stands at 6720.50, while the ORL is at 6719.75. As of pre-market, the VWAP is also at 6719.75. High-volume nodes at 6710–6722 act as scalp magnet zones. The overnight low at 6701.50 remains the downside inflection point.

Scalping Plan:

- Long bias above VWAP/OR breaks with volume. Target 6728 to 6735+.
- Fade VWAP rejections back to OR. Quick 1–2pt rotations.
- Avoid chop inside VWAP compression.

Risk Management:

- Use half-size into the open; scale only on confirmed breakout.
- Hard stop: sustained trade below 6701.50.
- Event risk: 10:00 AM New Home Sales, 4:10 PM Mary Daly speech.

Takeaway:

Scalpers should focus on reacting to market movements rather than predicting future trends. The ongoing debate between Powell and Micron is likely to lead to whipsaws in the market. Therefore, it’s crucial to adhere to VWAP/OR discipline, respect liquidity pockets, and let the market tape confirm the direction of the trade.