The downfall of META

META
Current Price: $465.20

1-Month Move: +4.8% (from $443.90)

1-Year Move: +35.7% (from $342.80)

Year High/Low: $527.30/$328.50

Technicals:
RSI: ~67.4 (nearing overbought)

Above 20-day MA, slightly below 50-day MA, above 200-day MA (short-term rally in a longer uptrend)

Options Data:
IV Rank: 85th percentile (high premiums)

Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (bearish skew)

Max Pain: $450.00

High OI: $460 puts, $470 calls

Historical & Model Insights
Historical Move: META averages ~14.5% post-earnings, with 5/12 quarters showing downside.

IV Crush: Expect 30–40% IV drop post-earnings, so time exits carefully.

Outlier: Llama/Meta sees bullish potential from call activity and AI-driven ad growth, but bearish signals dominate.

Trade Setup
Strategy: Single-leg, naked put (bearish, defined risk)

Instrument: META

Direction: PUT

Strike: $460.00 (premium $0.72, fits $0.50–$1.00 target band)

Expiry: 2025-05-02 (first weekly post-earnings)

Entry Price: $0.72

Entry Timing: Pre-earnings close (2025-05-01)

Profit Target: $1.44 (~100% gain)

Stop Loss: $0.36 (~50% loss)

Confidence: 65%

Expected Move: ±$68.20 (~14.66%)