Bearish Scenario (primary)

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Bearish Scenario (primary)

Bias: Still bearish until price can reclaim 4020+ on 4H.

Setup idea:

Entry: 4008–4012 (retest of imbalance / EMA cluster).

Stop-loss: 4022–4025 (above 4H minor swing and trendline).

Targets:

TP1 → 3980 (1H structure low / EMA200 zone)

TP2 → 3960 (liquidity sweep below wedge support)

TP3 → 3920 (major 4H demand zone)

Confirmation: Wait for 15m rejection wick or lower-timeframe MSS/CHOCH within that zone.

Bullish Alternative (reversal breakout)

If price closes a 4H candle above 4020 with strength:

Entry: Retest of 4010–4012 as support.

Stop-loss: Below 3995.

Targets:

TP1 → 4040 (previous supply zone).

TP2 → 4080 (liquidity above equal highs).

Summary

Structure compression signals potential breakout soon.

Since momentum is still bearish and price is failing to reclaim 4H EMAs, short from resistance is higher-probability.

Watch reaction to 3980 — if it holds firmly with bullish divergence, the wedge breakout north could begin.

Penafian

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