NatGas - Preparation for long

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We arrived to the profit taking area on Friday. I booked profits on half of the position.
We are near to the end of the 1st daily cycle of this IC so this is not the time to be brave with shorts. It can reverse any time now.

The volume is decreasing. The indicators are starting to show some divergencies.
I used the FIBO retracement to see where could this decline end.
The 50% retacement of the previous rally was at 3.113. I was waiting for the break of 3.070 so that was too early.
The next level is the 61,8% FIBO retracement at 2.939. That price looks the most likely to print the DCL in the next 1-2 days. I still think tomorrow or Tuesday we will have "the low in".

I noticed an interesting thing. The 78,6% Fibo retrcement is at 2.692. It's almost the same level where the target price is what we counted from the triangle. (Height of the triangle -yellow)
If you start to go long in Natty before I post the long idea just be sure to have some dry powder at 2.692. The chance is low that we tag that level but it's not out of the table.
Komen: I would like to wait the close before making a decision.
It looks the decline finished now as we printed a swing low.
Komen: Swing:
Komen: But you can google it.
Komen: We are erasing yesterday's whole rally. The reason is the volume.
Yesterday's volume was too low to go long that's why I wanted to wait the close.
I still have the 50% short position.
Komen: There's no reason to panic though. If you are long just hold the position
and get ready to add.
We are very very close.
Komen: I don't want to push the short trade anymore here.
So I'm closing my shorts as I got better opportunity than stopping out yesterday at the swing.
TSI gave in the signal - crossed over.
The RSI has left overbought so even if we have a lower low there will be a divergence...
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Komen: There was no waterfall decline after breaking 3.070 so there is no reason to stay in a short position.
Komen: I think they will hit
Natty at the report.
That will be our entry.
Komen: Fingers on the buy button.
When we break down 2.99 I will be buying.
Hello Arpi where is this going?
Looks like there is still a chance for 2.85/2.90 low.
Hi Arpi, thank you for nice work and your kind sharing.
Can you please share how you analyze the weekly chart? If Natty close at 3.03, then this week candle tell us that Natty is not yet bottom.
Please correct me if my understanding to candle analysis is not correct. Thank you.
Did you BUY?
Hedge funds are buying every dip..they tried hard to push through 3.00 ..but this is not gold market..not that easy for the big boys..i started buying now..22.30+ in UGAZ ..ill add more if we crash on the opening..but hedge funds also watching 2.7-2.90 a small trader ..i cannot beat the machines..
thanks arpi for the update
you dont wait for 2.93 ? or even lower
jolu jolu
@jolu, 4h MACD as well as Rsi still point down
1 day chart also show we can move deeper..
do you think we will reverse instead of going to much down?
@jolu, Pretty sure.We had the chance for the waterfall decline when we broke 3.07- nothing happened.
This is the 1st daily cycle. No panic selling at the dcl.
Bulls are buying the dip.
jolu chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, ok seems logic! great analysis as always
we are 3.01 now ,2.99 buying!
jolu chartwatchers
@chartwatchers, we are up sharply now//
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