Great NDX Risk/Reward Short on June 26, 2017

Dilihat 464 kali
464 18
NDX appears to be completing an Elliott wave Expanding Flat Correction

Wave (a) was 140.90 x 1.382 = 194.72 + 5633.30 wave (b) targets 5828.02 wave (c)

Wave (c) appears to be forming an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle.
Wave I = 141.80 x .50 = 70.90 + 5759.69 wave IV targets 5830.59 wave V

Wave "3" of a five wave impulse can never be the shortest wave. Therefore the count is wrong above 5836.24

The Ending Diagonal will likely complete on 6/26/17, typically wave "5" overshoots the upper trend line .

A short in the NDX 5828 to 5831 area risks 5 to 8 points.
Minimum downside move is back to NDX support at 5633-5634. Reward about 195 to 198 points.

Don't get why Wave count would have been wrong above 5836.24 - Wave 3 ended at 5802 (a 150% extension of Waves I and II)
asmartdog asmartdog
@markrivest great call of course!
markrivest asmartdog
Hi @asmartdog,

I was assuming an Elliott wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle was under construction. In Elliott wave rules, the third wave of any five wave impulse can not be the shortest of the three impulse waves. In the count I illustrated the supposed wave "V" made the supposed wave "III" at NDX 5836.24 the shortest impulse from the Ending Diagonal Triangle point of origin at NDX 5634.60.

It takes courage. It takes guts.

As you know Mr. Rivest stood his ground,and did not change his opinion on the NDX SHORT he recommended on 6/25

despite a 6/28 sharp snap back rally, which actuaally completed an almost exact Head and Shoulder's Reversal Pattern on a 60 Min.NDX chart.

As I write the NDX has already fallen 115 points on 6/28 to Mr. Rivest's exact target of NDX 5634

Things are getting serious now.... A break of NDX 5634 could have significant downside potential ahead.


markrivest The_Unwind
Hi @The_Unwind

Thanks for the compliment.


Great post! Want to know when the low 5633-5634 has achieved, what will NDX do most likely? Will NDX has a rally toward the national day?

Hi @zhilin,

Thanks for the compliment.

A break of NDX below 5633-5634 could be a very bearish signal. Very near term the US stock indices may not have much down side between now and 7/4/17 Independence day holiday.

If NDX can break below 5633-5634 it could come after 7/4/17.

zhilin markrivest
@markrivest, Thank you!
This is one of the great market calls that Mr. Rivest has made !

One only need to understand the degree of difficulty in making such a call, that absolute credit should go to Mr. Rivest for seeing this

before it happened this past weekend as a majority of market professionals were fooled by this move down in stocks, especially in the NDX,

Many players thought the rally was going back to the historic highs recorded in the last few weeks

Billions of dollars have suddenly been lost on paper/ along with realized losses in the last 48 hours !

This is a very serious decline.

Mr Rivest's target of NDX 5634 looms straight ahead.

Tomorrow's trading 6/28 -thru Friday 6/30

now takes an urgent degree of importance further complicated by the closing of the books on the second quarter this Friday.

Today's trading was the last day to settle out a stock trade for the quarter. as volume on the selloff increased across the board.

Dow and S+P also fell in 6/27 trading, as the decline is now spreading to the other major indices as well.

If NDX 5633 is breached on a closing basis this week,

things could get ugly in a hurry in the days ahead and panic type selling could ensue.

Extreme caution is advised in all long positions of stock, at least until/when the dust settles.


Mr. Rivest's recommendation to short NDX at the 5831 area on 6/26, continues to pay off big time, a brilliant recommendation by Mr. Rivest

as NDX low of 6/23 at 5759 was broken as anticipated with a gap open to the downside on 6/27.

6/27 low thus far is 5734, making this recommendation already worth nearly 100 NDX points to the downside !

When trading if stops are hit, and then the market reverses back to the anticipated direction of the trade,

it is the responsibility of the trader to get back into the market,at a determined price to realize the full potential of the anticipated move,

and that is exactly what happened on 6/26 when NDX rose past stop area at 5831, but then broke back down to the downside.

A "False Bullish Breakout" is an extremely bearish event.


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