NDX/SPY and NDX/DJI looks like the NASDAQ is popping a bubble

13 Mei 2021

Introduction
For my adult life the advice has been to buy just by ETFs. And for the last decade or so the advise has also to been buy the NASDAQ ETF because it over-performs the other indices. It seems that advice is on the precipice of ending due to some long term indicators on the verge of flipping their switches.

• The MFV VSTOP is set to 3x and right now price action has gone below the stop. IF we confirm below the arrow stays in place and right next to it we get that black dot which means the move is confirmed. Not shown to keep the main chart clean is the VSTOP on the current time frame which has already flipped bearish.
  
• Price action is also leaning heavily on the 20 month SMA which, due to its use in a variety of other indicators is rather important.
  
• The Chart also declares that we have a lot of divergence on some popular indicators
  indicators
  [\list]
  
  I could almost exactly use the same write up for NDX/DJI but this chart has the RSI with a double top instead of clear bearish divergence.
  
  
  A look at NDX, SPY and DJI to try and guestimate what this dump could look like is very bearish indeed. The dotcom bubble burst was a historical economic event and it seems its ghost has come to haunt us. SPY and DJI will be less affected by this downtrend but will still take significant beatings over the next coupe of years. The fact that they don't go down as much means they are less likely to get a playable/dupe-able bull trap
  
  
  Here is a replay of the dotcom pop on NDX with my general thoughts. It is on the three day with the daily BB in orange and the weekly in blue. There will be a lot of technical bounces on the way down and a put/short strategy seems very advisable.
  My Conclusions
  I am not going to go on at length about the dollar or inflation in consumer staples or the wallstreetbets effect. It looks pretty bad out there when you compare the most bullish US index to its brothers and that is generally bearish for the broader market. I am not a financial advisor and I don't have a CMT... purely self taught. But I am going to look to short in one way or another these bearish continuation patterns and I might even take some opportunistic logs when the price action first hits the weekly bollinger band. There is going to be a lot of pain over the next couple of years but there is nothing moral about being bad with money, or losing money.
  
  Here is TSLA based off of my linked idea. Plenty of chances to swing trade in this dumpster fire of an equity if I can get some indicators to back up the TA. The main chart suggest we will get a multi-month bull trap. The chart where I replayed the NDX bubble burst also suggest a multi-month bull trap. Even though the macro situation is bearish you still have to be nibble enough to deal with the rallies however you decide. My other linked idea is how I potentially see BTC affected by the everything bubble