Natural Gas Market Outlook — September 01, 2025.

NG #NaturalGas #NatGas (NYMEX:NG1!) 🔵 Natural Gas Market Outlook — September 01, 2025.

Alright, here’s the skinny on NatGas. Back on April 28, 2025, I was calling for a dip into the $2.74 zone—and guess what? We tagged it right on schedule.

Now the game flips: I’m hunting long entries with the first serious target sitting at $10.00.

Could we overshoot? Absolutely. If momentum really gets cooking, the Fibo 227% extension lines up at roughly $21.00. But let’s not get greedy yet—$10 stays the main milestone for the next big leg.

Macro Drivers

➖ Exports: LNG shipments are the elephant in the room. Europe’s still thirsty, Asia’s paying up, and U.S. cargos are cashing in.
➖ Production: Flat. Shale guys aren’t rushing to flood the market unless we break above $3.20+.
➖ Geopolitics: Russia’s LNG rerouting and Middle East jitters keep a bid under global gas.
➖ Utilities & Consumers: Domestic demand is softer thanks to renewables transitions, but that’s a sideshow compared to export flows.

Big Picture

EIA pegs Henry Hub at $3.60 in 2025 and $4.30 in 2026, but frankly, that’s conservative. With demand from data centers, electrification, and global LNG growth, upside is more likely than not.

Trade View

➡️ I’m treating $2.74 as the cycle low. Any dips near that level look like golden tickets for long positioning into 2026. First pit stop: $10.00. If bulls get rowdy, keep an eye on $21.00 as the stretch target.

➡️ Bottom line: NatGas just gave us the reset we were waiting for. From here, risk/reward favors the long side. Strap in—it’s gonna be a volatile ride, but that’s where the money gets made.