Nifty 50 – Gravity Check in Progress

Technical Breakdown
• Double Trouble: Nifty made two failed attempts to break out above 25,150. Both got slapped back down. That’s a double top on the 15-minute, with rejection wicks to prove it.
• Trend Shift Brewing: Lower highs and a breakdown from minor support suggest momentum is flipping.
• Volume Tells a Story: Weak up-move volume, strong sell volume on the last leg down. Classic signs of distribution.

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Fundamental Undercurrent
• RBI Already Fired the Bazooka: Post the surprise rate cut and liquidity injection, Nifty rallied hard. Now the stimulus sugar rush looks priced in.
• Valuation Fog: Forward PE is at ~20.2x, slightly below average but not a bargain. Some brokerages are warning that midcaps and smallcaps are getting bubbly.
• External Jitters: Global market mood is cautious, with geopolitical and trade-related grey clouds lingering.

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The Trade Setup
• Entry: Sell if price decisively rejects 25,130–25,140
• Stop: 25,170 (15-min candle close above)
• Targets: 25,000 → 24,900 → 24,800
• Time Horizon: 2–4 sessions
• Risk-Reward: 1:2 or better

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Bottom Line

The chart says sellers are lurking near the top. The fundamentals say the rally’s narrative is weakening. The mood? Feels like the market’s looking for a reason to exhale. Until Nifty can punch through 25,150 with volume, the path of least resistance could be down.