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NIFTY fall & probability observation

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1) On Aug 5th, 2024 - Nifty's low (23,893.70).
2) On Nov 12th, 2024 - Nifty broke Aug 5th low and fell (-2.64%).
3) On Nov 21st, 2024 - Nifty's low (23,263.15).
4) On Jan 13th, 2025 - Nifty broke Nov 21st low and fell (-2.10%).
5) On Jan 27th, 2025 - Nifty's low (23,786.90).

As per the above observations of NIFTY chart data, Every time when nifty broke the previous low It fell an average of (-2%).

> The fall % difference between the (Aug 5th, 2024 to Nov 12th, 2024) is (-2.64%) - (-2.10) = 0.54%.
> Observing, Assuming and Applying this % difference data with the Jan 27th, 2025 low (23,786.90),
That is, (2.10% - 0.54%) = 1.56%
23,786.90 - 1.56% = 22,431.

-> FIB Retracement - Marking the Nifty's election day's (Jun 4th, 2024) low of 21,281.45 and Nifty's All Time High (Sep 27th, 2024) 26,277.35, The next level (0.786) of fib retracement comes around 22,350.

-> The above observation data collides with Fib Retracement.

Final Comment: If nifty breaks the level of (22,786.90), The next support would be 22,400 to 22,350. If it breaks further, Nifty may test the most major support of 21,800.



Dagangan aktif
> NIFTY broke the support level of 22,400 to 22,350 range.

> The next level of supports would be 22,000 (psychological support) and 21,800 major support.

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