Nifty spirals down yet again in full flow. Where is the bottom?
As Nifty Spirals down in a full flow investors have following questions in mind:
Q1 Where is the bottom?
Q2 How much more pain left in the system?
Q3 When will the recovery start?
Answer to all the questions is interlinked.
Answer 1) Predicting exact top and exact bottom is very difficult but with MMI at 23.71 it is clear that extreme fear has gripped investors. Those who invest during extreme fear zone make profit in a long run that is very clear cut long term scenario. FII have withdrawn enmasse in search of greener pastures. HNI investors and retail investors are worried that FII is going away. Also they feel the fear of increased taxation while budget 2025 is about to arrive supports for Nifty which can act as bottom are at 22740 (near lower bandwidth of bollinger band), 22465, 22175 and 21886 (Channel bottom support). Any of these levels as of now can act as support for Nifty.
Answer 2) As the levels suggest short covering can happen anytime alter this week as market looks oversold. Current RSI 28.66 is and RSI support is at 22. So we can expect a technical bounce upto 23K or 23.2K any time soon. Only if the Nifty closes 23550 we can see a momentum build up which can take Nifty further up towards 24K or 24.2K as of now.
Answer 3) Short term recovery can start very soon probably later this week. Long term recovery and march towards 25K or 25K+ will take some time and might start in end of Q1 or mid Q2 2025. As per the charts.
Q1 Where is the bottom?
Q2 How much more pain left in the system?
Q3 When will the recovery start?
Answer to all the questions is interlinked.
Answer 1) Predicting exact top and exact bottom is very difficult but with MMI at 23.71 it is clear that extreme fear has gripped investors. Those who invest during extreme fear zone make profit in a long run that is very clear cut long term scenario. FII have withdrawn enmasse in search of greener pastures. HNI investors and retail investors are worried that FII is going away. Also they feel the fear of increased taxation while budget 2025 is about to arrive supports for Nifty which can act as bottom are at 22740 (near lower bandwidth of bollinger band), 22465, 22175 and 21886 (Channel bottom support). Any of these levels as of now can act as support for Nifty.
Answer 2) As the levels suggest short covering can happen anytime alter this week as market looks oversold. Current RSI 28.66 is and RSI support is at 22. So we can expect a technical bounce upto 23K or 23.2K any time soon. Only if the Nifty closes 23550 we can see a momentum build up which can take Nifty further up towards 24K or 24.2K as of now.
Answer 3) Short term recovery can start very soon probably later this week. Long term recovery and march towards 25K or 25K+ will take some time and might start in end of Q1 or mid Q2 2025. As per the charts.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.