NIFTY – Range-Bound but Bearish Tilt Emerging

📈 NIFTY – Range-Bound but Bearish Tilt Emerging | Option Chain + Price Action Analysis
🕒 Chart Type: 15-Minute
📆 Date: July 3, 2025
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🔍 What’s Catching Our Eye:
NIFTY closed at ₹25,397.40, hugging the key support zone at ₹25,378. The index remains inside a well-defined range, but the sharp rejection from the ₹25,490–₹25,509 supply zone highlights sustained selling pressure. The failure to reclaim ₹25,455 signals caution from buyers.
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📌 What We’re Watching For:
The ₹25,378 level is crucial. A breakdown below it with volume could ignite fast momentum towards ₹25,300–₹25,250. On the other side, a bullish reversal setup is only valid if NIFTY reclaims ₹25,455 with a strong candle and high volume. Option data tilts clearly bearish, showing confidence from institutions—not speculation.
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📊 Volume Footprint:
Current volume stands at 293.43M, lower than the previous session’s 330.09M, indicating reduced participation and indecision. Watch for a volume spike below ₹25,378 (for breakdown confirmation) or above ₹25,455 (to validate reversal strength).
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📈 Option Chain Highlights:
The 25,500 CE shows heavy short build-up, with OI sharply higher—clear sign of strong resistance. The 25,600 CE adds to that pressure with additional short positions. Meanwhile, 25,400 PE is witnessing long build-up, and strong OI in 25,000 PE shows downside anticipation. Overall, OI positioning strongly supports a bearish view.
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🔁 Trend Bias:
🔴 Bearish unless NIFTY reclaims and sustains above ₹25,455
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🧠 Trade Logic / Reasoning:
Price remains in a supply-driven setup, with a sharp rejection seen from ₹25,490–₹25,509. Support at ₹25,378 has held so far but looks increasingly fragile. Option chain behaviour reinforces this bearish bias—Call writers dominating higher levels and Put buyers building exposure at lower strikes.
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📍 Important Levels to Mark:
🔺 Top Range: ₹25,608 – Look for breakout or reversal candlestick pattern + volume
🔻 Bottom Range: ₹25,378 – Watch for breakdown or bullish reversal pattern + volume
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🎯 Trade Plan (Educational Purpose Only):
✅ Best Sell: Long - 25,400 PE – If breakdown below ₹25,378 confirms with volume
✅ Best Buy: Long 25,300 CE if price reclaims ₹25,455 + ₹25,490 zone with a strong bullish candle + volume
🟢 Demand Zone: NA
🔴 Supply Zone: ₹25,490–₹25,509 (Confirmed rejection area)
⚠️ Invalidation Below:
Bullish view becomes invalid if NIFTY breaks and holds below ₹25,378 with strong volume
Bearish view loses strength if NIFTY reclaims ₹25,455 with follow-through
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⚠️ Disclaimer:
This post is for educational purposes only.
STWP is not a SEBI-registered advisor.
This is not a buy/sell recommendation.
Please consult your financial advisor before trading.
STWP is not responsible for any trading outcomes.
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