NIFTY-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

The past week witnessed a lightening attempt of 18004 and then it was one-way down move. Every spike got sold-off/ While the monthly Option expiry played a major role in the decline. the FOMC minutes added to the negative sentiments. The bulls lost their last opportunity to hold above 18K. It remains to be seen if the monthly lows of 17353 holds.

A few observations from the weekly charts are:
Weekly charts suggest that

• The index moved in a range of 583 points viz. between 17421 and 18004
  The oscillators are showing negative signals
  Monthly closing candle week and Option OI to drive the market direction
  Expected scenarios for the ensuing week
  Though there were indications of noticeable weakness below 18k, it failed to hold the consolidation range and the Index has seen a dramatic shift of sentiments and the direction
  The close near the lows of the week is not a great sign either.
  For the ensuing week, the last hope lies at the monthly low of 17350 and followed by 17280 which is the Mid BB. A break below these supports would trigger bigger stops and the Index might trend towards 17030.
  index may find supports at 17350, 17230, 17110 and the index could face resistances at, 17585, 17670 &17880
  Expected to remain in the range of 17220-17850 and any close outside the range requires re-assessment of risk
  
  

Additional interesting observations

*The region between 17540 and 17770 is a slippery turf and known for sharp moves on either side, the Index may find it difficult to reclaim the lost battle zone of 18k
Going forward the Index may find stiff resistance at 17840
There had been multiple Gaps created during the up move
17320-17430
16650-16770(Far away for now)
16360-16560 (These are risk zones which might pull the Index down)

Final Note

*Like we have seen bearish candles consecutively for three months between Apr 22 to June 22 we are witnessing similar move from Dec22 to Feb23 taking the index closer to the Mid BB
As noted in the previous Blog, it is observed from the daily charts that the Index is moving in a downward sloping channel with base support at 17270 and top at 17930. Till either of this is breached we may see a consolidation
FIIs have turned net moderate sellers and the DIIs also moderate buyers
The first 2 sessions of the ensuing week could see a fight for a monthly closing candle. The new month is expected bring in some positivity on expectations of Q4 results and the initial SIP flows.
Most likely scenario could be a range of 17250-17770
We need to see a daily close above 17850 for further gains towards 18K
The below piece of information is being highlighted in our previous blogs starting Dec 22. We intend to keep this tail piece even at the cost of repetition for the sake of quick reference
If we take the Fib retracements so far the correction has been 1283 points. The Annual gain has been 3704 points from 15183 to 18887. One third correction would fall at 17666 and a 50% correction would mean 17035
#Stay Safe

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.