NQ/QQQ Weekly Levels & Trade Prep(Sep5-8)

5 Sep 2023

SUMMARY

• NQ finished the week with a gain of 3.6% after trading in a range of 648 pts.
  
• NQ recovered the June 16th high & is trading back above the 9/21/55 emas
  
• First support is now the June 16th high and 9 ema
  
• Price is still above the HTF 618 Fib and Aug 16th high
  
• Aggressive XLK & XLY sectors had as strong week while the defensive XLP & XLU sectors finished red. XLE is also showing relative strength.
  
• Weak econ data has caused yields to drop and given a lift to risk assets.
  
• Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
  
• If price breaks back below the 55 ema a full compound correction to the Aug 16th high is still possible.
  
• Earning seasons closes out with reports from DOCU, KR, AI & GME
  
• Lighter week for econ data ahead but many Fed Heads scheduled to speak
  

ECONOMIC EVENTS

• MON US Markets Closed
  
• TUES US Factory Orders
  
• WED US S&P Services PMI, BoC Rate decision & Fed's Logan & Collins speak
  
• THUR US Jobless Claims, EIA Crude Inventories & 7 Fed Heads speak + BoC's Macklem speaks
  
• FRI CAD Unemployment Rate, US Wholesale Inventories, & Fed's Barr speaks
  

EARNINGS

• MON US Markets Closed
  
• TUES ASAN, GTLB, ZS
  
• WED AEO, AI, GME, PATH
  
• THUR DOCU
  
• FRI KR
  

BULLISH NOTES

• NQ has reclaimed the 9/21/55 emas.
  
• NQ back above the June 16th high
  
• Potential move back above the Mar 29th high.
  
• 1st test of the 236 Fib RT held
  
• NQ remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
  
• Up trend remains in place if pulls back stay above 50% Fib RT
  
• Potential positive reaction to Fed Head speeches
  
• Potential further drop in bond yields.
  

BEARISH NOTES

• Price rejected at the Mar 29th high
  
• Potential double top on a re-test of the Mar 29th high.
  
• Seasonally weak period of the year for stocks
  
• Potential compound correcton to the Aug 16th high & lower trendline
  
• A move below the Aug 16h high would drop price out of the bull zone.
  
• Potential negative reaction to Fed Heads
  
• Potential 10 year yield move above 4.27%
  
• 200 SMA is now a potential downside magnet
  

5 Sep 2023

Nota

$NQ_F is attempting to roll over. June 16th high is the key level of support. If support fails look for a move back to the 9 ema. If support holds a test of recent highs is likely.

6 Sep 2023

Nota

$NQ_F Lower support at the June 16th high held and price retested the recent highs but was rejected. We have sideways price action now until NQ resolves 1 way or the other. The market may be waitng on the Canadian rate decision due out at 7am pst/ 10am est.

6 Sep 2023

Nota

$NQ_F The 9 ema down side target has been hit. Look for support to come in here.If support fails the next down side target is the 21 ema then the 55 ema at the bottom of the green box.

7 Sep 2023

Nota

$NQ_F closed yesterday with a small bounce off the 9 ema, but sold off overnight on negative AAPL news cutting through the 21 ema easily. Price has already tested the bottom of the green box. If the 55 ema can hold a bounce back into the 9/21 emas is likely. Below the 55 a move to the upward trendline is possible.