Will Bulls Reclaim Control or Fade Into the Close?
1. Market Structure
NVDA’s market structure this week has been a textbook example of controlled distribution turning into a short-term range compression. On the daily chart, we saw a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) after NVDA failed to hold above the prior BOS zone near $194–$195, breaking below the trendline and triggering a momentum selloff toward $180. The broader uptrend from April remains intact, but this week’s action is more about testing the integrity of that long-term trendline.
On the 1-hour chart, NVDA is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a descending channel — clear short-term bearish structure. However, a minor CHoCH appeared at $179.7, where buyers defended a liquidity sweep and rebalanced the imbalance left from Tuesday’s gap-down.
On the 15-min, price is coiling tightly between $179.5 and $183.9, creating a compression zone that often precedes strong Friday moves. Smart money seems to be accumulating near the lower boundary ($179–$180), taking advantage of weak-handed sellers.
2. Supply & Demand / Order Blocks
Key demand zones sit at:
* $179–$180 → Repeated rejections and strong buy wicks confirm this as near-term demand.
* $164–$166 → Next major unfilled order block from the August consolidation (daily chart).
Key supply zones:
* $183.9–$185.5 → Intraday supply aligned with 15-min CHoCH rejection and 1-hour descending trendline.
* $194–$195.6 → Major supply from the daily BOS rejection zone.
If NVDA breaks below $179.5, liquidity opens up fast toward $177.3 and then $172.5 — both align with prior imbalance fills. Conversely, reclaiming $183.9 with conviction could trigger a short squeeze into $187–$190, where previous stop clusters lie above equal highs.
3. Indicator Confluence
9 EMA and 21 EMA: On the daily, both EMAs are flattening — signaling exhaustion after a prolonged uptrend. On the 1-hour, 9 EMA is still below 21 EMA, suggesting bearish control but with a narrowing gap hinting potential crossover if buyers push above $182.5.
MACD: Momentum is compressing. The histogram shows fading red on lower timeframes, and the 15-min MACD just turned slightly positive — a subtle but important shift suggesting short-term relief could follow if buyers defend $180 support.
Stochastic RSI: Both 1-hour and 15-min Stoch RSI are curling up from oversold territory, pointing to short-term upward momentum.
Volume: We’re seeing lower volume on the recent dips — typical of absorption rather than aggressive sell pressure. This adds weight to the idea that smart money could be loading for a controlled Friday move.
4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment
The GEX map paints a fascinating setup heading into Friday’s close:
* Key Positive Gamma Zone: $185 → Largest call wall and positive GEX cluster, where dealers hedge short gamma by selling strength.
* Neutral Pivot / HVL: $181–$182 → The battleground where dealers flip between short and long gamma exposure.
* Put Walls: $177.5 (2nd wall) and $172.5 → Heavy negative gamma zone, where volatility could expand if price breaks below.
Implied volatility remains moderate (IVR 24.6, IVx avg 54.3), indicating traders aren’t expecting a massive breakout yet — but gamma positioning suggests we’re on the cusp of a move. If NVDA pushes above $183.5, dealer hedging could flip bullish, forcing a gamma squeeze toward $187–$190. Conversely, losing $179 would trigger negative gamma acceleration, likely dragging NVDA toward the $175 zone.
For Friday scalpers, the sweet spot lies around this $181–$182 pivot, where gamma flips and liquidity sits thickest. Expect quick reversion trades early, then directional follow-through once either boundary breaks.
5. Trade Scenarios
🔹 Bullish Setup
* Entry: Above $183.50 with confirmed retest hold.
* Target 1: $185.5
* Target 2: $187.2 → $190 (gamma squeeze zone)
* Stop-Loss: $180.80
* Confirmation: MACD crossover + 9/21 EMA flip + volume expansion above prior candle body. Bias: Watch for aggressive short covering into the weekly close if SPY stays risk-on.
🔹 Bearish Setup
* Entry: Below $179.50 (1-hour BOS level).
* Target 1: $177.30
* Target 2: $172.50 (major put wall and FVG fill)
* Stop-Loss: $181.80
* Confirmation: MACD histogram flips red again + rejection at EMA cluster + volume surge on breakdown. Bias: Sellers control below 180. If bulls fail to defend that level, NVDA could retrace deeper into next week.
6. Closing Outlook
Friday’s tone for NVDA hinges entirely on the $181 gamma pivot. This level is the magnet — where both sides are fighting to dictate direction into the weekend. If bulls can defend it and break $183.5, we could see a short-covering rally into the close. But failure here, especially if SPY weakens, opens the door for a deeper flush into the $177s.
Personally, I’m watching for a liquidity trap near $180–$181 — if we get a fake breakdown that reclaims quickly, it’s often the cleanest Friday scalp long into $185.
Volatility should rise into power hour as dealers rebalance hedges ahead of expiration.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade your plan.
1. Market Structure
NVDA’s market structure this week has been a textbook example of controlled distribution turning into a short-term range compression. On the daily chart, we saw a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) after NVDA failed to hold above the prior BOS zone near $194–$195, breaking below the trendline and triggering a momentum selloff toward $180. The broader uptrend from April remains intact, but this week’s action is more about testing the integrity of that long-term trendline.
On the 1-hour chart, NVDA is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming a descending channel — clear short-term bearish structure. However, a minor CHoCH appeared at $179.7, where buyers defended a liquidity sweep and rebalanced the imbalance left from Tuesday’s gap-down.
On the 15-min, price is coiling tightly between $179.5 and $183.9, creating a compression zone that often precedes strong Friday moves. Smart money seems to be accumulating near the lower boundary ($179–$180), taking advantage of weak-handed sellers.
2. Supply & Demand / Order Blocks
Key demand zones sit at:
* $179–$180 → Repeated rejections and strong buy wicks confirm this as near-term demand.
* $164–$166 → Next major unfilled order block from the August consolidation (daily chart).
Key supply zones:
* $183.9–$185.5 → Intraday supply aligned with 15-min CHoCH rejection and 1-hour descending trendline.
* $194–$195.6 → Major supply from the daily BOS rejection zone.
If NVDA breaks below $179.5, liquidity opens up fast toward $177.3 and then $172.5 — both align with prior imbalance fills. Conversely, reclaiming $183.9 with conviction could trigger a short squeeze into $187–$190, where previous stop clusters lie above equal highs.
3. Indicator Confluence
9 EMA and 21 EMA: On the daily, both EMAs are flattening — signaling exhaustion after a prolonged uptrend. On the 1-hour, 9 EMA is still below 21 EMA, suggesting bearish control but with a narrowing gap hinting potential crossover if buyers push above $182.5.
MACD: Momentum is compressing. The histogram shows fading red on lower timeframes, and the 15-min MACD just turned slightly positive — a subtle but important shift suggesting short-term relief could follow if buyers defend $180 support.
Stochastic RSI: Both 1-hour and 15-min Stoch RSI are curling up from oversold territory, pointing to short-term upward momentum.
Volume: We’re seeing lower volume on the recent dips — typical of absorption rather than aggressive sell pressure. This adds weight to the idea that smart money could be loading for a controlled Friday move.
4. GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Sentiment
The GEX map paints a fascinating setup heading into Friday’s close:
* Key Positive Gamma Zone: $185 → Largest call wall and positive GEX cluster, where dealers hedge short gamma by selling strength.
* Neutral Pivot / HVL: $181–$182 → The battleground where dealers flip between short and long gamma exposure.
* Put Walls: $177.5 (2nd wall) and $172.5 → Heavy negative gamma zone, where volatility could expand if price breaks below.
Implied volatility remains moderate (IVR 24.6, IVx avg 54.3), indicating traders aren’t expecting a massive breakout yet — but gamma positioning suggests we’re on the cusp of a move. If NVDA pushes above $183.5, dealer hedging could flip bullish, forcing a gamma squeeze toward $187–$190. Conversely, losing $179 would trigger negative gamma acceleration, likely dragging NVDA toward the $175 zone.
For Friday scalpers, the sweet spot lies around this $181–$182 pivot, where gamma flips and liquidity sits thickest. Expect quick reversion trades early, then directional follow-through once either boundary breaks.
5. Trade Scenarios
🔹 Bullish Setup
* Entry: Above $183.50 with confirmed retest hold.
* Target 1: $185.5
* Target 2: $187.2 → $190 (gamma squeeze zone)
* Stop-Loss: $180.80
* Confirmation: MACD crossover + 9/21 EMA flip + volume expansion above prior candle body. Bias: Watch for aggressive short covering into the weekly close if SPY stays risk-on.
🔹 Bearish Setup
* Entry: Below $179.50 (1-hour BOS level).
* Target 1: $177.30
* Target 2: $172.50 (major put wall and FVG fill)
* Stop-Loss: $181.80
* Confirmation: MACD histogram flips red again + rejection at EMA cluster + volume surge on breakdown. Bias: Sellers control below 180. If bulls fail to defend that level, NVDA could retrace deeper into next week.
6. Closing Outlook
Friday’s tone for NVDA hinges entirely on the $181 gamma pivot. This level is the magnet — where both sides are fighting to dictate direction into the weekend. If bulls can defend it and break $183.5, we could see a short-covering rally into the close. But failure here, especially if SPY weakens, opens the door for a deeper flush into the $177s.
Personally, I’m watching for a liquidity trap near $180–$181 — if we get a fake breakdown that reclaims quickly, it’s often the cleanest Friday scalp long into $185.
Volatility should rise into power hour as dealers rebalance hedges ahead of expiration.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage your risk and trade your plan.
Dagangan aktif
NVDA remains under bearish pressure on the 5-minute chart after confirming a BOS below 183.10. Price continues to reject the descending trendline and can’t reclaim the key resistance zone at 184.26–184.40. Momentum indicators show slight exhaustion, but no clear reversal yet.If buyers can’t hold 183.06, the next downside targets sit at 182.68 → 181.74, where a short-term bounce zone may form.
Only a strong push above 184.40 would shift intraday sentiment back to bullish.
Still a short-bias setup unless NVDA reclaims structure — trade with patience and manage risk.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak bertujuan, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat atau cadangan kewangan, pelaburan, dagangan atau jenis lain yang diberikan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca lebih dalam Terma Penggunaan.