Case Study: Banking a +7 % Pop on OLLI’s VCP/ Ascending Triangle
Momentum in discount retail has been stealth-strong all quarter, so when Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI) flashed a textbook volatility-contraction break I pulled the trigger. Below is the full play-by-play, numbers included, plus the process tweaks I’m carrying into the next trade.
1. The Setup
• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115
2. Execution
• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94
3. Results
• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge
4. What Went Right
• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure
5. Improvement Plan
• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets
OLLI
1. The Setup
• Pattern: VCP-style ascending triangle under 121 resistance
• Context: Post-earnings drift sideways, volume drying up each contraction
• Catalysts: Strength across discounters (DG, WMT, DLTR) and bullish seasonality
• Risk: 1 % of account, stop pre-defined at 115
2. Execution
• 20 Jun – Stop-limit filled at 121.01 once intraday volume hit 2.6× ADV
• 24 Jun – Trimmed 3 sh at 129.13 (+6.7 %) to “feed the monster” and recycle BP
• 30 Jun – Trailing stop (ratcheted daily) closed remaining 7 sh at 129.94
3. Results
• Gross P&L: +86.89 USD, +7.18 % on position
• R-multiple: +1.45 R on initial risk
• Expectancy (TraderSync): +3.83 % — proof the process carries a positive edge
4. What Went Right
• Bought only after volume confirmed the breakout
• Stop never widened—only tightened
• Early partial locked in reward and removed emotional pressure
5. Improvement Plan
• Keep a 10 % “runner” until first close below 10-EMA or heavy distribution day
• Back-test a +25 % add on day-two follow-through (+2 % price, >1.5× volume)
• Simplify order flow by defaulting to single OCO brackets
OLLI 
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.