8/19/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
PANW
r/r ambiguous at $334, sidelines into print
- i think among the cyber names this one is the bluest of chips (notably after
CRWD had it's "snafu" - though i think there's more here than meets the eye and i've written about it)
- 3.5% cash gen (half of that is stock comp - but gets a pass b/c the company/ leadership and stock price are up to the right). this number is better than cash yields given growth.
- let's look at the expected EPS growth beyond just 24 vs 23 (because this year is over as far as how wallstreet looks at things), so 25/24 and 26/25... low teens growth. this is hardly "great" and i think part of what informs my sidelines. if it were even high teens or better 20s, i'd say "scarce and growth good enough". but what's weird here is that a beat probably raises the '24 # and to a slightly lesser extent '25 and '26 which further grow multiples on stock and looks more expensive.
- on the other hand, a miss and this thing looks like it trades at 60x this year and 54x '25... which isn't cheap for these EPS growth rates in the outer years we're referring to.
- so ambiguious b/c this asset for all intents and purposes *should* continue to trend higher. but the valuation requires a sizeable beat to maintain it's upward trajectory. the chart has a nice gap to fill higher in the $360s which is den in play (that's 10% higher, nothing to scoff at). on the other hand, a miss probably does a similar move. if something's truly broken or we we get a weird guide, maybe 15% off. I have a hard time understanding why this thing sells off 20%. so the risk is pretty balanced. for that reason, i typically don't like to take shots. put a gun to my head... stock is up on earnings. but it's a 6/10 conviction guess and i typically just watch these from the sidelines and act ex post.
lmk if you see it differently.
V
PANWr/r ambiguous at $334, sidelines into print
- i think among the cyber names this one is the bluest of chips (notably after
CRWD had it's "snafu" - though i think there's more here than meets the eye and i've written about it)- 3.5% cash gen (half of that is stock comp - but gets a pass b/c the company/ leadership and stock price are up to the right). this number is better than cash yields given growth.
- let's look at the expected EPS growth beyond just 24 vs 23 (because this year is over as far as how wallstreet looks at things), so 25/24 and 26/25... low teens growth. this is hardly "great" and i think part of what informs my sidelines. if it were even high teens or better 20s, i'd say "scarce and growth good enough". but what's weird here is that a beat probably raises the '24 # and to a slightly lesser extent '25 and '26 which further grow multiples on stock and looks more expensive.
- on the other hand, a miss and this thing looks like it trades at 60x this year and 54x '25... which isn't cheap for these EPS growth rates in the outer years we're referring to.
- so ambiguious b/c this asset for all intents and purposes *should* continue to trend higher. but the valuation requires a sizeable beat to maintain it's upward trajectory. the chart has a nice gap to fill higher in the $360s which is den in play (that's 10% higher, nothing to scoff at). on the other hand, a miss probably does a similar move. if something's truly broken or we we get a weird guide, maybe 15% off. I have a hard time understanding why this thing sells off 20%. so the risk is pretty balanced. for that reason, i typically don't like to take shots. put a gun to my head... stock is up on earnings. but it's a 6/10 conviction guess and i typically just watch these from the sidelines and act ex post.
lmk if you see it differently.
V
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.