Prime time to pick up!

21 Mac 2021

Uniswap Chart Here
i.imgur.com/8OdsLdC.png

PERP just finished retracing and just touched the VWAP on Uniswap. If you haven't yet bought it on Binance, I suggest you get at least one buy in. It's not worth a YOLO just yet, but definitely get your foot in the door.

The higher Uniswap price also tells me that the whales are in a long position. If it were lower they would have arbitraged it out to equalize the difference.

22 Mac 2021

Nota

We've seen the rise and fall of ALICE and PERP is now under some scrutiny. The main difference between the two is that ALICE held a presale through bnance, but PERP has been listed on Uniswap for quite some time now and has a decent enough amount of trading data to analyze (chartex.pro CHART screenshot). In my opinion, ALICE was going to be toxic waste at launch to begin with.

I'm not saying ALICE will never be valuable or ever grow, but the fundamental reason it looks like a pump and dump is because it is behaving this way by design; much like any token on Uniswap that has its initial distribution through a presale.

PERP Tokenomics Model/ Token Unlock Schedule Here

PERP had similar behavior on its bnance listing. It rose and then fell. However today, we see a promising green candle. This is because there is always a lot of hype around any coin that launches on a huge, centralized exchange. Bnance is publicly announced to be an early investor of this coin and correctly allowed Uniswap to experience most of the volatility, bearing the brunt for a majority of the token unlocks. As of right now, 1/3rd to 1/4 of the coins have yet to be unlocked.

Logically speaking, venture capitalists who join in on presales are toilet paper handed assholes who will immediately dump the bags they are given by the projects they invested in. We can expect regular dumping to happen for the next 6 months. However, we should not assume that every single coin will be dumped because of their staking model. By staking PERP, you are literally becoming "the house" of the casino. You are the insurance provider hedging against day traders who have a failure rate of above 90%.

Now there is also another fundamental issue that I want to address, the uncapped token supply. I know uncapped token supplies can be scary for any coin, but the reason this works is because PERP governors are not stupid. Any large investor, including bnance, is are allergic to losing money. A proposal to increase token supply will also include a method of distribution. Most likely, if the supply is expanded then current PERP holders will be compensated with a proportional amount of the PERP supply. That is if the supply is expanded 1% and you hold 1% of the supply, you will likely be airdropped more PERP to maintain your 1% hold.

The reason we are seeing a bounce today after dipping below $8 is because it dipped under the VWAP on Uniswap. The data available on bnance is utterly useless and should be disregarded for the next few months. I've written before that the VWAP can be viewed as a "fair price" and it should be noted that the price can deviate from the VWAP because 1) that is what it has always done and 2) it only tells you where a resistance is. While I did pick up some PERP at $8, I'm NOT planning to sell for a while because the rewards mechanism makes too much sense to not take advantage of. It is realistic to expect PERP to drop down to $4.50, but it isn't truly a loss since I am going to be paid out regularly in USDC for my service as an insurance provider.

PERP is definitely going to be profitable, but if you are NOT going to stake it you should STAY AWAY for at least three to six months because it is not currently a HODL coin, it is a USE coin that is publicly announcing its dump cycle for the next six months. This investment is not for the risk averse.

PERP is literally the next sensible step in DeFi evolution after lending. I will be building my stack through July with my gains from other assets and I look forward to an early retirement. This is among other coins is going to be part of my 401K wallet collection.